US President Donald J. Trump welcomes Prime Minister Imran Khan of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan on Monday, July 22, 2019, to the West Wing Lobby entrance of the White House. (Official White House photo by Joyce N. Boghosian). Image via Flickr by Trump White House Archived. Public Domain.

The complex relationship between the United States and Pakistan has long been marked by a mix of cooperation and deep hostility due to conflicting diplomatic ties, nuclear policy, and regional issues such as the War in Afghanistan. For many Pakistanis, the United States is viewed as an outside force intervening in their internal affairs — a narrative crafted by decades of political unrest, economic volatility, and military operations, particularly during the US's “War on Terror.”

This narrative was cemented when former Prime Minister Imran Khan was deposed two years ago. He quickly blamed the United States for his downfall. Khan was dismissed from office in 2022 following a no-confidence vote in Pakistan's parliament. He was sentenced to 10 years in prison for corruption in January 2024, just weeks before Pakistan's general election in February. However, the former cricketer-turned-politician asserted that his country's top military generals and Washington conspired to remove him from office. The assertion was unverified, yet his supporters largely believed the claim.

Now, after Donald Trump achieved a decisive victory over Kamala Harris in the 2024 US presidential election, supporters of Imran Khan, the incarcerated former Pakistani prime minister, claim that Trump will find time to tweet something highlighting Khan's situation. The two leaders seemingly share a strong bond, stemming from when then-Prime Minister Khan paid a visit to the White House in July 2019. The meeting was viewed as a diplomatic victory for Khan, raising his international stature and hinting at warming US-Pakistan relations.

Keeping those times in mind, Khan supporters, including many of the 625,000-strong Pakistani American community, believe Trump might be willing to advocate for the former prime minister in his second term. When Trump was president, he saw Khan (then prime minister) multiple times, including at the White House. When the two leaders met again in January 2020, on the margins of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland, President Trump described Khan as a “very good friend of mine.”

The Pakistani-American community in the United States has formed firm relations with the Trump campaign and pledged to support Trump rather than the Democratic nominee, Kamala Harris. Trump has a non-interventionist and anti-war attitude and has stated he opposes “regime change operations” on foreign soil.

The intrigue surrounding Trump's return is compounded by his campaign's pledges, including potentially advocating for Khan's release from prison. One clip circulating on social media shows him promising to lobby for Mr. Khan's release; however, this is an old video modified by Imran Khan's followers and never actually happened.

As Trump prepares to take office in January 2025, one question remains: Will Trump intervene in Pakistani politics? While Khan's followers are clearly optimistic, it is critical to consider the broader ramifications of US foreign policy in South Asia, particularly under a leader like Trump, who has proven a transactional approach to international relations. Trump's foreign policy has often prioritized personal relationships and short-term rewards over long-term strategic objectives.

Historically, US administrations have used their authority to influence results in Pakistan, frequently favoring geopolitical interests over democratic norms. The military's influence in Pakistani politics cannot be overstated; the military establishment wields significant power and frequently dictates foreign policy choices. Analysts believe that regardless of who occupies the White House, the United States will most likely deal with Pakistan's military rather than individual politicians. This fact presents substantial hurdles for Khan, who has established himself as an outsider to traditional power systems in both Pakistan and the United States.

The Biden administration resumed military support and investment in Pakistan, with a focus on technology and green energy — areas that Trump may not prioritize given his track record. The idea that Trump will take a more forgiving stance toward Khan does not guarantee that he will ignore the United States’ strategic interests in the area, particularly regarding relations with India and combating Chinese dominance.

Nonetheless, Trump's intervention, even if it was nominally in support of Khan, would be risky. Trump's track record indicates that his foreign policy decisions are frequently influenced by personal ties and financial interests rather than a consistent ideological stance, creating concerns about his long-term commitment to any particular outcome in Pakistan. Furthermore, Trump's prospective engagement with Pakistan may exacerbate divisiveness, particularly if his backing is interpreted as siding against the military establishment. Such a posture might bolster pro-Khan individuals while exacerbating the country's long-running civilian-military power struggle.

It should be noted that Washington considers Islamabad an ally against Tehran in the unlikely circumstance of a conflict with Iran. There was some consensus on this during the US-Pakistan strategic discussions. Now that the Republicans have taken control of the White House, Senate, and likely US House, the new government will reach out to Pakistan without regard for Khan or other lawmakers. Any influence from the Trump administration would be motivated by US strategic goals, particularly in South Asia, such as regional security and combating China's influence, rather than merely humanitarian considerations.