Photo by Sasha Pleshco on Unsplash. Used under an Unsplash license.

On October 20, presidential elections and a constitutional referendum on joining the EU were held in Moldova.  The results of the presidential elections and the referendum on European integration came as a surprise to many in Moldova. Only slightly more than 50 percent of voters supported the inclusion of the European course in the constitution. On November 3, 2024, Moldova will hold the second round of the presidential election, with incumbent President Maia Sandu and former Prosecutor General Alexandr Stoianoglo advancing. NewsMaker examined why the forecasts and polls did not materialize, and what can be expected next. Global Voices translated the article and republished with permission from NewsMaker. 

With a narrow margin and a second round

The second round of the Moldovan presidential election will take place in two weeks, on November 3. The candidates will be Maia Sandu from the ruling PAS party and Alexandr Stoianoglo from the Socialists. Pre-election polls showed that Sandu would likely take first place and Stoianoglo second, but the difference in numbers was significant.

Polls showed that around 30–35 percent of respondents were ready to support Sandu, while around 10 percent favored Stoianoglo. This was out of the total electorate, with a large portion of voters still undecided. As a result, Sandu received 42.45 percent, and Stoianoglo 25.98 percent.

Elections on the edge

The referendum, on the other hand, was expected to see an overwhelming victory for the “Yes” vote.

In reality, the referendum was split almost in half: 50.49 percent voted in favor of including European integration in the Constitution, while 49.57 percent voted against.

Regions against the EU?

Interestingly, according to preliminary results (after half of the ballots were counted), those voting against the referendum were significantly higher (around 56 percent) than those voting in favor. The situation began to change once the ballots from overseas voting stations were processed. Inside the country, most regions had more voters against the constitutional amendments. In fact, there were regions where Sandu (the initiator and main promoter of the referendum) came in first place, but the majority voted against the referendum, such as in the Ungheni and Leova districts. In some districts, Sandu received fewer votes than the “Yes” vote on the referendum, such as in the Telenesti and Nisporeni districts.

The capital, Chișinău voted “Yes” to amending the constitution: 55.98 percent of voters in the capital supported it, while 44.02 percent were against.  All districts of Chișinău and its suburbs supported the amendments, except one, where the majority opposed the EU course being added to the Constitution.

Southern and northern regions of the country mostly voted against the amendments.

WatchDog expert Andrei Curararu argues that the fact that in more than half of Moldova’s districts, over 50 percent opposed the constitutional amendments is not representative.

In federal states, federal subjects play a bigger role. But we are a unitary state. Our demographic situation is such that the population gravitates toward living in Chișinău. I believe that half of our population now lives in Chișinău. We see that Gagauzia voted against the amendments, but let’s not forget that only 200,000 people live there, and typically only about 55,000 vote.

He also pointed to the economic influence of Chișinău and the diaspora on the country’s development, suggesting that this factor should be compared with the regions that voted against.

Why did this happen?

After the preliminary election and referendum results were announced, Maia Sandu stated that around 300,000 voters were targeted for bribery. There were expectations of provocations and vote-buying during the elections and the referendum. The fugitive oligarch Ilan Shor, sentenced to 15 years in Moldova, and his “Victory” bloc created a network of supporters, offering them money to join and recruit others. The police repeatedly conducted searches and arrested leaders and members of the bloc’s territorial organizations for illegal financing and influence on the electoral process. Curararu noted that Moldova has a “televised format” for defending democracy: “We conduct searches and arrest two or three leaders, but we do not work with the population. And the population turned out to be much more influenced by Shor than we thought earlier.”

Former Moldovan representative to the UN and Council of Europe Alexei Tulbure noted that Russian interference became a very serious factor influencing the results. However, if judicial and law enforcement reforms had been implemented in Moldova, “the destructive power of Russian interference could have been minimized.”

Political scientist Angela Colatski compared the government’s response to Shor’s actions to “a mosquito bite.”

When you sit down to play with a cheater, it doesn’t matter what game you’re playing—you always have to stay alert. We can’t fight them using their methods, because those are illegal methods. We need to use the entire state arsenal, and ahead of time.

Bad timing

Alexei Tulbure believes that only reforms improving people's lives can make the process of European integration irreversible.

If people's lives improve, we can confidently say there will be no going back. But adding amendments to the Constitution won’t make European integration irreversible. We lack a legal culture. 

 Moreover, organizing a referendum simultaneously with the presidential election raised many questions. Some pro-European supporters also voted against it, as “it was a vote against the government, not against Europe.” Tulbure emphasized that “This was a message directed at the president and PAS, who organized the referendum when it wasn’t the right time or method.” 

Insufficient work with voters

Another reason cited by experts is insufficient engagement with voters. “There needs to be political work to achieve broad consensus on European integration and to unite society,” Tulbure said. He believes the process should involve other ethnic and political groups in the population, which “would change their attitude towards it.” He added, “If they are excluded, they become easy prey for propagandists and populists.” 

According to him, the PAS team didn’t do enough to reach out to voters.

They [PAS representatives] visited central districts of Moldova, where their stable electorate mostly lives. The president didn’t visit the north or the south, where her rating is significantly lower. In the next two weeks leading up to the second round, she needs to visit these areas and convince people.

Angela Colatski also noted that the idea of the referendum was poorly communicated to voters. “Not all voters understood that there would be no second round for the referendum. The slogan ‘There will be no second round in the referendum’ came too late,” she said. 

What’s next?

Moldova is heading to the second round of elections. Making predictions is difficult. The gap between candidates in the first round is 16 percent. Sandu has already appealed to the supporters of Octavian Ticu, Andrei Nastase, Tudor Ulianovschi, Ion Chicu, and Renato Usatii, asking for their support in the second round. However, it is worth noting that all these candidates criticized the incumbent president.

Among the named candidates, Renato Usatii received the most electoral support, finishing third in the first round. In the previous presidential election in 2020, Usatii also placed third and called for votes for Sandu in the second round. Before the first round of the current election, Usatii said he would not endorse anyone this time. Stoianoglo, on the other hand, may unite all opposition-minded voters. But whether that will be enough to close the gap and pull ahead remains unclear.

On the other hand, it seems that Sandu has already mobilized her stable electorate, and there are no more votes to draw from. Experts disagree. Tulbure believes Sandu still has two resources: voters from the northern and southern parts of the country, whom she failed to convince in the first round, and the diaspora, which, although it already demonstrated massive voting, could provide additional support.

Angela Colatski believes that Maia Sandu must build cooperation with other pro-European forces, especially ahead of next summer’s parliamentary elections. The referendum results revealed not only a deep societal divide but also dissatisfaction with the current government. Experts have long doubted whether PAS will replicate its 2021 results. “It’s necessary to start negotiating a pro-European coalition now,” Colatski noted.

Curararu believes the shock from the referendum and election results could serve as motivation for pro-European voters.

There are two weeks left until the second round of the election, and the campaign will intensify. Both candidates have already challenged each other to debates.