East Asia – Global Voices

Eyes in the sky: Hong Kong police considering AI-enhanced drone patrols

Hong Kong Free Press — Fri, 13 Dec 2024 07:01:50 +0000

Currently HK police's crime detection drones are operated by human

Originally published on Global Voices

A flying drone. Uploaded by Ryan Beirne on Pexels. Free to use.

This report was written by Hans Tse and published in Hong Kong Free Press on December 12, 2024. The following edited version is published as part of a content partnership agreement.

Hong Kong police are considering using drones for routine patrols and analysing their images with artificial intelligence, the city’s security chief has said. This is in addition to broader government plans to ease restrictions on aerial vehicles.

Secretary for Security Chris Tang said on December 11 that the plan to allow drones to patrol designated routes had been discussed as authorities are set to relax a rule banning “beyond-line-of-sight flying activities” under the city’s Small Unmanned Aircraft Order.

Currently, a drone operator must be able to see the drone at all times during a flight. Tang told the lawmakers:

To further enhance the regulation of the application of drones, the Transport and Logistics Bureau and the [Civil Aviation Department] have commenced reviewing the existing civil aviation… legislation.

He said drones had already been used for crime detection and investigation, beat patrolling, rescue operations and firefighting.

Drones equipped with high-resolution cameras had been deployed to “crime black spots,” such as those in remote locations or in difficult terrain, to collect evidence and detect suspicious activities.

They had assisted firefighting by monitoring temperature changes from above and helped the search for missing persons in rugged terrain, he added.

Tang said the disciplined services had about 800 advanced drone operators qualified with the Civil Aviation Department (CAD). Police established a drone cadre in October, and the Fire Services Department established a dedicated drone team as early as 2017.

Advanced drone operators can fly an aircraft weighing seven to 25 kilograms, the current weight limit in Hong Kong.

Authorities will study regulations and standards in other regions, such as mainland China, Australia and Canada, Tang said, while the CAD will begin to relax existing restrictions.

The Small Unmanned Aircraft Order will be amended to cover drones weighing between 25 to 150 kilograms, he said, adding the government is considering new legislation for drones weighing above 150 kg.

‘Low-altitude economy’

During the legislative meeting on Wednesday, December 11, lawmaker Tang Fei asked Tang to explain how authorities could avoid technical glitches that had hit the city’s tourist attraction drone shows in recent months. In October, one such show was cancelled due to “significant ionospheric interference”, a meteorological phenomenon that can affect the accuracy of drone signals.

Tang said the deployment of drones by disciplined services often involved just a few machines that were operated manually, unlike large-scale shows that relied on precise coordination.

The security chief said authorities would ensure that drone operations complied with the city’s privacy regulations.

Hong Kong is promoting the use of drones in what authorities call a “low-altitude economy,” a term that refers to economic activities in airspace below 1,000 metres.

Chief Executive John Lee has announced that the government will set up a working group on developing the low-altitude economy.

It is expected to study and amend drone regulations, as well as establish joint low-altitude air routes with mainland China, where drones are much used in areas such as entertainment and deliveries.

‘Free yourselves from fear’: Cambodian youth activists fight for environmental justice

Mong Palatino — Tue, 10 Dec 2024 06:00:05 +0000

Global Voices interviewed members of the embattled youth group

Originally published on Global Voices

Mother Nature members (left to right) Long Kunthea, Ly Chandaravuth, Yim Leanghy, Thun Ratha, and Phuon Keoraksmey, leaving the Phnom Penh Capital Court after their fourth trial hearing on June 17, 2024. Photo from Licadho, CC BY-NC 4.0

Ten members of the Cambodian environmentalist group Mother Nature were sentenced to six to eight years in prison for supposedly plotting against the government and insulting the King, but this has only emboldened the youth activists to reaffirm their commitment to fight for environmental justice.

Mother Nature is led by young Cambodians opposing mega-development projects that threaten to displace villagers and destroy the surrounding environment. Some of their campaigns include a video project raising awareness about river water pollution as a result of inadequate waste removal from factories, protests against illegal sand smuggling, and their documentation of sewage pollution near the royal palace.

The activists were previously arrested in 2020 because of their activism and were held in prison for 14 months. The July sentence is related to peaceful protests conducted in 2020 and 2021, as well as reports critical of the government.

Following the sentence, the activists were immediately violently detained and sent to prison, despite outcry outside the courtroom from community members and human rights activists.

This case reflects an alarming pattern of state-backed repression targeting environmental defenders in Cambodia. Between April 2019 and July 2023, the Cambodian Center for Human Rights documented the arrest of 195 individuals, 22 of whom were convicted under various criminal charges, in connection with their land rights activism.

Anticipating the court verdict and their detention, several members were able to write and film messages addressed to the public. Ly Chandaravuth urged Cambodians to overcome fear and oppose the wanton destruction of the environment.

I don't ask the Cambodian people to demand my freedom from the courts, but to free yourselves from the fear that holds you back. This struggle is hard, and if we fall, the suffering will reach our children and grandchildren.

Thun Ratha said he will remain strong despite their incarceration.

If people see this video, it means I am now in prison.

What I want to do most is protect natural resources which belong to the Cambodian people. I have been suffering due to the actions of those who are making use of and benefitting from natural resources with no regard for environmental and social impacts.

I will maintain the strength that I brought here through the immense love of those who support us.

We are sure that what we have done is for the benefit of justice and everyone.

Even though five of the group's members are facing imprisonment, Mother Nature members have continued to advocate for the environment and raise public awareness about the grave impact of some of the government's large-scale projects.

When we advocate for the protection of natural resources, we often face accusations of being anti-development. But should we sacrifice these vital resources in the name of progress? Is development justified if it leads to excessive depletion of our natural heritage? Our five friends have been arrested for standing up against destructive practices masquerading as development.

Mother Nature members have continued to organize campaigns and distributed leaflets and posters aimed at gathering support for the urgent release of their imprisoned fellow activists.

Mother Nature members have a message to Cambodian authorities: “Free our friends”. Photo from the Mother Nature Cambodia Facebook page. Used with permission.

In an online interview with Global Voices, a member of Mother Nature shared how the group has changed their strategy and protocols since its members were slapped with criminal charges.

The arrest has (forced) us to quickly relocate from place to place for our safety because we didn’t want to lose our core members anymore.

And yet we have to reset, refocus on the mission no matter how tough it is. We made our choice to work continuously after the arrest of our friends. We keep our wills of environmental protection ahead of everything.

They reiterated their pledge to continue fighting for a cleaner future.

The more they arrest our members, the more defenders are coming up. We will be always here fighting for environmental justice.

It’s our duty to accomplish our aspiration to live together with nature peacefully. We can’t live without it, can’t live our happy lives without nature. That’s why we are demanding power to the people not the regime.

Indeed, Mother Nature has continued to campaign against illegal logging, sand dredging, and the building of mega dams. They posted this message on X (Twitter) five months after their members were convicted by a local court.

It has been five months since the Cambodian courts arrested and imprisoned activists from the Mother Nature movement under anarchy. After five months of brutal arrests, have the environment and natural resources been better protected, or are they worsening and facing increasing… pic.twitter.com/81HRxkr63d

— Mother Nature Cambodia (@CambodiaMother) December 2, 2024

The persecution of Mother Nature members has been condemned by local and global civil society groups. Several human rights groups, such as Human Rights Watch, Amnesty International, and Licadho, the Cambodian League for the Promotion and Defense of Human Rights, have also called for their release.

At the time of writing this piece, more than 104,000 people have signed an online petition demanding the release of the youth activists.

Meanwhile, the Permanent Mission of Cambodia to the United Nations has called members of Mother Nature “self-proclaimed environmental activists” and insisted that the “defendants had full opportunity to be heard, including the right to counsel, and to disprove the charges as part of the right to a fair trial and due process.”

Revolution without borders: Myanmar exiles fighting the junta from abroad

The Irrawaddy — Sun, 01 Dec 2024 01:00:26 +0000

A former political prisoner continues to resist the military dictatorship

Originally published on Global Voices

Daw Sandar Thwin (third from left) at a “flower strike” marking the birthday of detained civilian leader Daw Aung San Suu Kyi on June 19 this year. Photo by Women's Organization of Political Prisoners.

This article by Yuzana was originally published in The Irrawaddy, an independent news website in Myanmar that has been exiled in Thailand since the military coup in 2021. An edited version is republished on Global Voices as part of a content-sharing agreement.

Daw Sandar Thwin knew starting a new life in exile as a woman in her fifties wouldn’t be easy, but it has proved more difficult than she ever imagined.

Her peaceful family life in Yangon now feels like a distant dream.

Daw Sandar Thwin’s life was turned upside down by the 2021 military coup and ensuing national uprising. But even after facing imprisonment and numerous hardships, she remains committed to the revolution amid the daily challenges of exile.

In April 2021, Daw Sandar Thwin and her husband, U Thein Htwe Myint, were arrested and sentenced to three years in prison for “inciting anti-regime activities.”

They had been protesting the coup since February 6, 2021, five days after the military ousted the elected National League for Democracy (NLD) government and jailed its leaders, including former president Aung San Suu Kyi. The Yangon couple led the protests in South Okkalapa Township. Their two daughters fled into hiding to avoid arrest on the same charge, leaving the two eldest family members — Daw Sandar Thwin’s father and grandmother — alone in the house.

After nearly three years incarcerated in the notorious Insein Prison, the couple was released on May 2, 2023, just three days before their term was due to expire.

However, their ordeal was far from over.

News that police and the junta-appointed local administrator were searching for them again forced the couple to flee over the border to Thailand in mid-May.

Once a shop owner in her hometown, Daw Sandar Thwin took work in the kitchen of a tea shop in the border town of Mae Sot, while her husband worked as a waiter to support themselves and the revolution.

Most of their belongings, including her husband’s car, were sold back in Yangon to fund prison visits by their friends and family.

“Everything is gone,” Daw Sandar Thwin said.

Supporting the revolution

The newly exiled couple struggles daily to make ends meet, but they still send money from their meager earnings to support the People’s Defense Forces (PDFs) — the group fighting the junta forces.

Daw Sandar Thwin lost her grandmother and father during the third wave of the COVID-19 pandemic while she was in prison. She has also been separated from her elder daughter and beloved grandson. However, she says her sacrifice is nothing compared to that of PDF fighters.

“They are sacrificing their lives for the revolution, so I support them as much as I can.”

Too old to take up arms, she has found another way of joining the revolution.

Campaigning for adequate healthcare in prisons in December 2021. Photo by Political Prisoners Network (Myanmar). Used with permission.

Assisting women political prisoners

Daw Sandar Thwin and fellow political detainees formed the Women’s Organization of Political Prisoners on January 15 this year to support women jailed for opposing the military regime. She has taken charge of finance for the group, which provides food and medicine to female activists imprisoned across the country.

“Women political prisoners requested our help before we were released, so we saved up money and formed a group to assist them as much as we can,” Daw Sandar Thwin explained.

A total of 5,649 female anti-coup activists were arrested between February 2021 and August 31 this year, according to the Assistance Association for Political Prisoners.

The Women’s Organization of Political Prisoners reports that many have been denied family visits and are forced to rely on inadequate prison food.

Daw Sandar Twin is tasked with finding supporters and managing monthly food and medicine supplies for the political prisoners.

“While I was in prison, we shared food with each other. But the junta has now transferred political prisoners to jails where they can’t receive parcels from their families,” she said.

Her organization sent food and medicine to 77 of these women across nine prisons in September and October. Members also sell fried-fish paste — the political prisoners’ main food — to help fund the organization’s efforts.

Hope for the future

Daw Sandar Thwin previously joined the 2007 Saffron Revolution against military rule. Though not a member of the NLD, she expresses deep admiration for its chairwoman, Daw Aung San Suu Kyi.

She hung NLD flags on streets and cars at her own expense during the 2020 election, which the NLD won by a landslide before being ousted by the military.

Her 19-year-old daughter, an information officer for South Okkalapa Township’s NLD branch and a Dagon University student union member, woke her at 2 am on February 1, 2021, to share news of the coup, tears streaming down her face.

“Even as dictatorships fell elsewhere in the world, they [Myanmar military leaders] remained crazy for power. We don’t accept that. So, I joined the protests to end military dictatorship,” Daw Sandar Thwin recalled.

Their home became a meeting place for student union members, their photocopier used to churn out anti-junta pamphlets.

Now, she still works to eradicate the military regime despite new physical and mental challenges.

“If I were still young, I would take up arms to fight them [junta soldiers],” Daw Sandar Thwin said.

Desperate for the revolution to succeed, she firmly believes that ending dictatorship is the only path to lasting peace.

Former political prisoner Ma Thuzar praises Daw Sandar Thwin and her husband for their unwavering convictions and calmness amid adversity.

“When I first met them, they were working at a tea shop. Aunty [Daw Sandar Thwin] wasn’t in good health, so Uncle took on most of the work, including the cooking. The way they support each other and face difficulties together is truly admirable,” Ma Thuzar said.

After working at the tea shop for more than a year, Daw Sandar Thwin has taken a break for her health. However, she refuses to give up her efforts for political prisoners and the revolution.

“It doesn’t matter if we never get the chance to return home. We will continue to root out the military dictatorship,” she vowed.

How tech companies enable censorship in Vietnam

Mong Palatino — Fri, 29 Nov 2024 09:00:44 +0000

Criticism of Vietnamese officials is censored on social media

Originally published on Global Voices

A Facebook post which has a caption of “Secretary-President To on the tightrope” was censored in Vietnam. Source: Facebook post of Viet Tan, used with permission.

Tech companies operating in Vietnam are urged to uphold global human rights standards and to protect the rights of their users amid the continuing state-backed restriction of free speech in the country.

The Vietnamese government has long censored criticism and silenced dissenters — particularly those in online spaces. As Human Rights Watch (HRW) notes, “Political dissidents and human rights activists face systematic harassment, intimidation, arbitrary arrest, abuses in custody, and imprisonment.”

Now, international tech companies are being caught in the middle, forced to choose between assisting government censorship or upholding basic digital and human rights.

A report by Legal Initiatives for Vietnam evaluated the response of tech companies such as Meta/Facebook, Google, Netflix, TikTok, and Apple to the Vietnamese government’s requests for content moderation and access to users’ data. While the tech companies largely refused the government's requests to access users’ data, Legal Initiatives for Vietnam found a 90 percent compliance rate in requests for content moderation.

The report flagged the censorship of government criticism.

Our findings show a concerning situation where these companies almost always comply with an increasing number of content moderation requests from the Vietnamese government, with the compliance rate consistently above 90 percent over the years, including geographical restrictions and content removals. At the same time, the government and some tech companies acknowledge that a significant portion of the restricted or removed content is government criticism, which is protected speech under international human rights law.

Meta, specifically, maintains a secret list of officials who cannot be criticized on Facebook, according to Legal Initiatives for Vietnam's reporting. This was reiterated in a separate report by human rights watchdog Viet Tan which revealed that over 100 pieces of their content were blocked in Vietnam when Vietnamese politician To Lam, currently the general secretary of the Communist Party of Vietnam, visited the United States in September.

2/3) It details Meta's compliance with government requests to block content critical of Vietnam’s leadership, including political cartoons and discussions of internal power struggles. The report criticizes the lack of transparency and due process in content moderation, urging … pic.twitter.com/k5xGm4R0Ow

— Viet Tan (@viettan) October 2, 2024

It asked Meta to consider the following in addressing the Vietnamese people’s right to information:

Since the Vietnamese government considers all content by activists’ groups as ‘sensitive’ and potentially violating local law, Meta needs to better articulate how it determines when content should be censored for local users. For example, will an informal request from Vietnam’s Ministry of Information and Communications be sufficient? Or should the request also be accompanied by a court order? And what if the underlying content merely expresses a widely held political opinion?

This is not the first time that Viet Tan has called out Meta for complying with “unjust and arbitrary” government requests. In an e-mail interview with this author, Viet Tan’s advocacy director, Michel Tran Duc, shares their plan for holding the company accountable in the United States.

We have raised Meta’s content takedown and restrictions, urging the company to be transparent about their process for blocking content at the request of the government. The next step is to involve members of Congress to hold Meta accountable for their collaboration with the Vietnamese government to censor free speech, and continue to raise awareness through reports of censorship actions that counter Meta’s commitment to its Corporate Human Rights Policy and membership in the Global Network Initiative.

Asked if the selection of a new president would lead to reforms, Michel Tran Duc highlighted the notorious human rights record of the country’s top officials.

The former was a police general, and the current one is an army general. There is no sign that human rights and freedom of the press will be better respected in Vietnam after the change in office. Only domestic and international pressure can advance these rights in Vietnam.

For its part, Legal Initiatives for Vietnam recommended in its report that tech companies resist illegitimate government requests, protect user data, remove cyber troops and trolls that manipulate online discussion, and support the work of human rights defenders.

Indonesia’s new government pushes transmigration plan, stirring protests in Papua

Mong Palatino — Wed, 27 Nov 2024 00:00:28 +0000

The policy displaces and disenfranchises Indigenous Papuans

Originally published on Global Voices

Former political prisoner Sayang Mandabayan holds a poster that says “I reject transmigration.” Photo posted on X (Twitter) account of Veronica Koman, used with permission.

Indonesian President Prabowo Subianto, who assumed office on October 20, 2024, has announced the revival of the transmigration program, which encourages citizens to populate the country’s eastern region, including Papua — a province on the Easternmost side of the archipelago that has been fighting for independence from Java for decades. The Indonesian government said it seeks to promote the “people’s welfare,” but critics warn that the plan could further displace the Indigenous Papuan population.

Papua was annexed by Indonesia in 1963, but this was fiercely resisted by the local population and a self-determination movement continues to exist up to this day.

Indigenous Papuans have diverging ethnic roots from Javanese Indonesians as well as unique cultural traditions and histories. Papuans have long faced racism, discrimination, violence, and displacement from Indonesia, which has fought to keep the resource-rich province.

In an effort to further gain control of Papua and quash any rebellion movements, between 1964 and 1999, the government implemented a transmigration program that facilitated the resettlement of 78,000 families from Indonesia’s densely populated islands, such as Java and Sumatra, to Papua. During this period, witnesses testified that “customary land was taken (and) forests were cut down” while the Indigenous Malind people were prohibited from speaking their native language. The program was paused in 2001, but unofficial transmigration has persisted.

In recent years, Indonesia escalated its military deployment, which led to intense clashes and militarization of communities. According to the United Nations, between 60,000 and 100,000 Papuans were affected by these operations.

Prabowo, a former military officer accused of abducting activists, was the son-in-law of the president who initiated the transmigration program. A few days after his inauguration, he visited Papua to check the progress in developing food estates intended to address the country’s food security. However, some Papuan groups have decried it as a deforestation program that threatens the region’s biodiversity and displaces local villagers.

The United Liberation Movement for West Papua highlighted the link between the transmigration revival and the forced conversion of forests into agricultural plantations:

It is not a coincidence Prabowo has announced a new transmigration programme at the same time as their ecocidal deforestation regime intensifies. These twin agenda represent the two sides of Indonesian colonialism in West Papua: exploitation and settlement. Indonesia only wants West Papua’s resources; they do not want our people.

The group’s leader saluted the Papuan students who organized protests against the transmigration policy:

West Papuan students resisting transmigration. These illegal settlement plans are a key part of Indonesia's genocide of West Papua and a deadly threat to our survival. If Melanesian leaders allow this to happen we will be wiped out @MsgSecretariat @ForumSEC @PngPles @DailypostVu pic.twitter.com/H5beps8VvI

— Benny Wenda (@BennyWenda) November 4, 2024

Human rights lawyer Veronica Koman posted photos and videos of protests in Papua against the transmigration plan

The people of West Papua have spoken.

Just today (15/11/24), rallies against Indonesia’s settler-colonial Transmigration plan were held in:

Jayapura, Nabire, Sorong, Manokwari, Yahukimo, Yalimo, Timika, Makassar. pic.twitter.com/u0ucw8RfUW

— Veronica Koman 許愛茜 (@VeronicaKoman) November 15, 2024

Civil society group Civicus has monitored that attacks against peaceful protests in Papua have intensified ahead of Prabowo’s inauguration.

Papuan activists were shot at, faced intimidation for their advocacy as well as harassment and ill-treatment for their activism. Attacks and killing of journalists has persisted, including in Papua.

In addition, five new battalions were deployed, and at least 2,000 troops were sent to Papua in September and October.

Father John Bunay, chairman of the Justice, Peace and Integrity of Creation Commission of Jayapura diocese, sounded alarm over the seizure of lands in Papua. “There are so many migrants coming to Papua. There has been a seizure of living space from the indigenous Papuan people by non-Papuans.”

The International Parliamentarians for West Papua has called on the Indonesian government to allow the UN High Commissioner for Human Rights to check the situation in Papua. The group also criticized the potential negative impact of reviving the transmigration program.

The aim of transmigration was to dilute the Indigenous Melanesian population, while securing control of West Papua’s rich natural resource base.

Transmigration has produced structural discrimination in education, land rights, and employment. There is a high level of income and wealth inequality between Papuans and Indonesians, while migrants dominate the labour market.

But Transmigration Minister Iftitah Sulaiman Suryanagara asserted that the program will not simply relocate people but “enhance the quality of human resources through socio-cultural approaches.” He added:

Our main focus is no longer merely the relocation of people, a measure misinterpreted as transferring poverty from one place to another in the past. Instead, we will exert all-out efforts to alleviate poverty, boosting people's welfare.

Hong Kong’s top court affirms same-sex married couples’ housing and inheritance rights in landmark decision

Hong Kong Free Press — Tue, 26 Nov 2024 09:47:12 +0000

Hong Kong has few legal protections for LGBTQ+ people

Originally published on Global Voices

Nick Infinger holds a rainbow flag outside Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal on November 26, 2024. Photo: Hillary Leung/HKFP.

This report was written by Hillary Leung and published in Hong Kong Free Press on November 26, 2024. The following edited version is published as part of a content partnership agreement.

Hong Kong’s top court has ruled in favour of same-sex married couples’ housing and inheritance rights, handing a landmark victory to the city’s LGBTQ+ community following government appeals against previous court rulings.

The Court of Final Appeal handed down the verdicts on Tuesday, November 26, 2024, marking the end of years-long court battles waged by LGBTQ+ activists as far back as 2018.

The verdicts — all reached unanimously by a panel of five judges — encompassed three separate judicial reviews, a legal procedure that calls on the Court of First Instance to examine the decision-making processes of administrative bodies. Issues under review must be shown to affect the wider public interest.

Two of the cases involve a challenge of the government’s Public Rental Housing Scheme and the Home Ownership Scheme, which exclude same-sex partners from its definition of “ordinary families” and “spouses.”

Nick Infinger, who lodged a review of the government’s housing policy after the Housing Authority rejected his public housing application with his same-sex partner, addressed reporters outside the court on Tuesday. He said in Cantonese:

I’ve been fighting for LGBTQ+ rights for over 10 years. Finally, there is something to show for it. The court’s verdict today can be seen as an affirmation of same-sex couples’ love and [their right to] live together. This is very important.

Jerome Yau, the co-founder of NGO Hong Kong Marriage Equality, said the court had made it “very clear” that there was no difference between same-sex marriage and heterosexual marriage. He added that the verdicts showed that discrimination on the grounds of sexual orientation was a violation of human dignity. Yau said:

So I think the next question is, if they are the same, why we should treat them differently? Let’s hope the government will take note of the judgement and finally do their work and come up with something comprehensive… the best solution is marriage equality.

Co-founder of NGO Hong Kong Marriage Equality Jerome Yau outside Hong Kong’s Court of Final Appeal on November 26, 2024. Photo: Hillary Yeung/HKFP.

Legal challenges

Infinger, who married his partner in Canada, launched his legal challenge in 2018. The Home Ownership Scheme review was filed by Edgar Ng after he was told he needed to pay a premium in order for his same-sex partner, Henry Li, to co-own the flat with him. Li took over the challenge after Ng died by suicide in 2020.

The third case — also lodged by Ng, and now taken over by Li — involved inheritance laws, which state that only those in a “valid marriage” can inherit the property of their partner if they pass away without a will. Same-sex couples are excluded.

In all three cases, the Court of First Instance sided with the LGBTQ+ activists. In 2020 and 2021, the court ruled in favour of same-sex couples who got married overseas, stating they should have equal access to the city’s public housing under the Public Rental Housing Scheme and Home Ownership Scheme, as well as the same inheritance rights as heterosexual couples.

Court battles

Activists have long criticised Hong Kong’s limited rights and protections for LGBTQ+ people, seeing the judicial system as the only hope for reversing laws they say are rooted in discrimination.

Hong Kong does not recognise same-sex couples who get married overseas. Last September, the top court handed a partial victory to the LGBTQ+ community, ruling in a case lodged by pro-democracy activist Jimmy Sham that the government has an obligation to provide an alternative legal framework that recognises same-sex relationships.

The decision, however, stopped short of granting full marriage rights to same-sex couples in the city.

The government was given two years to develop a mechanism that recognises same-sex relationships before the court could say the government was in breach of the law.

During the hearing regarding the inheritance law judicial review, prosecution lawyer Monica Carss-Frisk said it was not appropriate for the government to change the definition of marriage in the context of inheritance laws until that framework was decided on. “Piecemeal” amendments would be “highly undesirable” as inconsistencies could cause confusion, she said.

Whilst same-sex sexual activity was legalised in 1991, Hong Kong has no laws to protect LGBTQ+ people from discrimination in employment, the provision of goods and services, or hate speech. Equal marriage remains illegal, although a 2023 survey showed that 60 percent of Hongkongers support it.

Forty-five Hong Kong pro-democracy activists jailed up to 10 years in landmark national security case

Hong Kong Free Press — Thu, 21 Nov 2024 18:06:58 +0000

Former law professor was sentenced to 10 year imprisonment

Originally published on Global Voices

Benny Tai. File photo: Jennifer Creery/HKFP. Used with permission.

This report was written by Kelly Ho and published in Hong Kong Free Press on November 19 and 21, 2024. The following edited version is published as part of a content partnership agreement.

Pro-democracy activist Benny Tai has been jailed for 10 years over organising an unofficial primary election in 2020, as Hong Kong’s High Court delivered sentences in the city’s largest national security case to date.

Tai was among 45 pro-democracy figures sentenced on November 19 after being convicted of conspiring to commit subversion, an offence under the Beijing-imposed national security law.

Handing down a 10-year sentence to Tai, judges Andrew Chan, Alex Lee and Johnny Chan described Tai as the “mastermind” behind the conspiracy in their judgement.

Tai was initially given a 15-year sentence, which was cut to 10 years after the judges, each of whom has been handpicked to preside over national security cases, considered his guilty plea. “The only mitigation in [Tai’s] case was his early plea of guilty. To that, the customarily one-third discount would be given,” the judgement read.

Ex-district councillor Andrew Chiu was sentenced to seven years after his initial sentence was reduced by half, with the judges taking into account his guilty plea and assistance to the prosecution.

Chiu was one of four democrats who testified for the prosecution, along with Au Nok-hin, Ben Chung and Mike Lam. Lam, the only defendant to have remained on bail throughout proceedings, was sentenced to five years and two months in jail.

The second-longest sentence was meted out to activist Owen Chow, who was given seven years and nine months in jail to be served separately from a five-year sentence for rioting.

The court ruled that Chow’s role as an initiator of an online petition to rally “radical” candidates constituted an aggravating factor. Former district councillor Wong Ji-yuet’s four years and five months will also be served consecutively with a three-year sentence for rioting.

Joshua Wong, who became known around the world for his student activism, was given a one-third discount because he pleaded guilty and was sentenced to four years and eight months in prison. Taking into account Wong’s previous convictions dating back to 2016, the judges said they “did not consider [Wong] to be a person of good character.” The judges said:

The sentence we passed on [Wong] also would not have a crushing effect on him.

Former Stand News journalist Gwyneth Ho, who did not submit a mitigation plea, was sentenced to seven years in prison.

Veteran activist and former lawmaker “Long Hair” Leung Kwok-hung was sentenced to six years and nine months in prison. His 24 prior convictions, some of which involved unauthorised assemblies, meant that the judges “were [not] in a position to describe [Leung] as having a positive good character.”

Kwok Ka-ki, Jeremy Tam, Claudia Mo, Andy Chui, and Gary Fan received the lowest sentences of four years and two months.

Under Hong Kong’s Safeguarding National Security Ordinance, which was enacted in March to plug “loopholes” left by Beijing’s security legislation, inmates serving time in prison for national security offences are subject to a higher threshold for early release, making remission unlikely.

Many of the democrats have been detained since being taken into police custody and charged on February 28, 2021, meaning they have served over three years and eight months already.

‘Constitutional chaos’

At the centre of the case was the July 2020 election primary, through which the opposition camp hoped to identify candidates to help it win majority control of the legislature in an upcoming election.

The judges ruled that the democrats had intended to abuse their powers to indiscriminately veto the government budget and force the chief executive to resign if they had indeed won a majority.

In a 319-page judgement in May, the judges wrote that Tai’s goal was to “undermine, destroy or overthrow the existing political system and structure of [Hong Kong] established under the Basic Law and the policy of One Country, Two Systems,” China's policy that gives it governance over Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan. This would have plunged the city into a “constitutional crisis,” they ruled.

Beijing inserted national security legislation directly into Hong Kong’s mini-constitution in June 2020 following a year of pro-democracy protests and unrest. It criminalised subversion, secession, collusion with foreign forces and terrorist acts — broadly defined to include disruption to transport and other infrastructure. The move gave police sweeping new powers and led to hundreds of arrests amid new legal precedents, while dozens of civil society groups disappeared. The authorities say it restored stability and peace to the city, rejecting criticism from trade partners, the United Nations and NGOs.

In response to the ruling, the US Department of State spokesperson Matthew Miller issued a statement saying that it would take steps to impose new visa restrictions on Hong Kong officials. Miller said:

The 45 defendants sentenced today were aggressively prosecuted, and many now face life-altering imprisonment simply for their peaceful participation in political activities which are protected under the Basic Law of Hong Kong… In response, the Department of State is taking steps to impose new visa restrictions on multiple Hong Kong officials responsible for implementation of the [national security law].

Also, in a statement, the Hong Kong government slammed the US's sanction plan as a “despicable political manipulation.” It said:

Any reasonable and fair person, upon reviewing the court’s judgment, would be convinced of the severity of the crime and the guilt of the convicted individuals, supported by irrefutable evidence. Despite these ironclad facts, Western countries, anti-China organisations and politicians, and foreign media continue to distort the truth and maliciously attack.

Reflections on youth-led movements against state repression in Bangladesh and Indonesia

EngageMedia — Thu, 21 Nov 2024 10:11:10 +0000

“The internet shutdown was meant to stifle us, but it had the opposite effect”

Originally published on Global Voices

Afifah Fitriyani interviews Shoeb Abdullah and Subinoy Eron of Activate Rights. Image via EngageMedia. Used with permission.

This article written by Afifah Fitriyani was originally published by EngageMedia, a non-profit media, technology, and culture organization, and an edited version is republished here as part of a content-sharing agreement with Global Voices.

Students and youth activists were at the forefront of the massive 2024 protests in Bangladesh demanding the reform of a controversial quota system for government jobs that prioritized descendants of freedom fighters, many of whom are politically connected to the ruling party. The subsequent escalation of violence and state repression included an eight-day internet shutdown that severely restricted communication and coordination among protesters.

This situation is not unique to Bangladesh. In 2019, Indonesian students protested against a revision of the Penal Code that threatened free speech. The government responded with internet shutdowns and police brutality against protesters, which prevented student activists from being able to organize and report the protest live, as well as seeking safety from the repression subjected against them. Over 50 people died in that protest, with no accountability steps taken to this day.

Recent protests in Indonesia have mirrored those in Bangladesh, with the youth again leading the charge. On August 22, 2024, Indonesian students protested the proposed amendment to lower the age limit requirement of a gubernatorial candidate under the Regional Election Law, which would allow the president’s second son to run for governor of Jakarta. This move is seen by many as the president’s attempt to further consolidate power within his family members; previously, amendments to lower the age limit for vice-presidential candidates had also been granted by the country’s constitutional court — a move that later allowed the president’s first son to run as vice president, and later win the election.

How to Survive With — and Without — the Internet

What can student protests from Indonesia learn from their Bangladeshi counterparts? According to Shoeb Abdullah and Subinoy Eron, co-founders of youth-lead digital rights organization Activate Rights, while social media has played a significant role in amplifying the messages of these movements, the internet blackouts in Bangladesh made it clear that protesters needed alternative ways to communicate. Shoeb explained how people turned to grassroots methods during the shutdown: “We relied on face-to-face conversations and pamphlets to get our points across. The blackout forced us to be more creative, and that actually strengthened the movement.”

Graphics by EngageMedia. Used with permission.

Thus, the movement persisted. Shoeb adds, “The internet shutdown was meant to stifle us, but it had the opposite effect. People found ways to organize offline, and the protests continued, more determined than ever.”

In the Indonesian context, where social media has similarly been a powerful tool for student protests, the lesson from Bangladesh’s movement under an internet blackout offers valuable insights. While Indonesia hasn’t yet faced nationwide internet shutdowns during protests, reliance on mainstream digital platforms could become a vulnerability. Alternative communication and information methods should be explored to ensure that connections are maintained when the government restricts mainstream channels.

A lesson in the leaderless model

The Bangladeshi youth activists also emphasized the importance of “leaderless” movements, a key feature of the Gen-Z Revolution. The 2024 student movement was independently organized, sharing only common goals and demands. The protests and actions were decentralized, with no formal leaders. Students and civilians alike are regarded as equal comrades, coordinating protests and disseminating information and resources both online and offline, through word of mouth and social media.

This model leads to a less hierarchical, more collective mindset that allows more people to stake their belonging in the movement and goals. It also opens doors for more non-traditional communities to chime in and participate in the actions — in more ways than one. “People would hide student activists in their houses to prevent them from being caught by authorities,” Eron shared. “Neighborhood aunties would also pour hot water from their balconies onto police officers who were brutalizing student protesters in the streets. It was a powerful moment of true solidarity.”

Read Global Voices Special Coverage: Turmoil in Bangladesh

Afifah Fitriyani is a student at Sekolah Tinggi Hukum Indonesia Jentera, specializing in women’s rights and human rights with four years of experience in the field.

The second scramble for Africa: The EU’s Global Gateway Strategy

Adesewa Olofinko — Wed, 20 Nov 2024 22:50:19 +0000

Europe and Africa aren’t just neighbours, Europe needs Africa, and Africa needs Europe

Originally published on Global Voices

The sixth European Union/Africa Union Summit in Brussels. From left to right:
Ursula von der Leyen, President of the European Commission, Jean-Michel Sama Lukonde, Prime Minister of the Democratic Republic of Congo; Charles Michel, President of the European Council, and Emmanuel Macron, President of France. Image by EC – Audiovisual Service on Wikimedia Commons (CC BY 4.0).

For decades, the narrative surrounding Africa-Europe relations has often been one of dependence and aid. Africa, a continent of immense diversity, is home to over 1.5 billion people and boasts the youngest, fastest-growing middle class in the world.

Despite its vibrant youth population and abundant natural resources, this continent is still struggling to establish itself in the global world order. But a change might be brewing, and nowhere is this more evident than in the evolving relationships between Africa, China, Russia, the United States (US), and the European Union (EU).

Over the past two decades, China has become a significant economic actor in Africa, drawing increasing attention from Europe and the rest of the world. With unprecedented access to Africa’s vast mineral wealth, this Asian economic powerhouse appears to have gotten a head start in terms of economic dealings across the continent.

While the US-backed Lobito Corridor initiative was announced in October 2023 as an effort to strengthen African partnerships, China recently expanded its influence by eliminating tariffs on goods from the world's least-developed countries with diplomatic ties to Beijing, including 33 African nations.

In addition, with the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), China's massive intercontinental development plan, in 2013, China has significantly expanded its influence and ambition across Africa. Chinese investments have surged across the continent, with Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) reaching USD 5 billion in 2021. By 2022, the leading recipients of Chinese investment included South Africa, Niger, the Democratic Republic of Congo, Egypt, and Cote d’Ivoire.

The European Union's relationship with Africa

In more recent years, the European Union has become Africa’s largest trading partner, a leading foreign direct investor, and the principal provider of development assistance. This dynamic has evolved into an Africa-Europe partnership dubbed the EU’s Global Gateway Strategy. Unveiled in December 2021 by the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, she described it as a template for how Europe can build more resilient connections with the world, with Africa at the heart of the vision.

While the EU’s Joint Communication that launched Global Gateway in 2021 does not explicitly mention China, the European Democracy Hub notes that most observers view the policy as a clear attempt to provide an alternative to China’s Belt and Road Initiative. Out of the 300 billion euros budgeted by the EU, 150 billion is projected to go toward infrastructure projects in Africa.

What’s in it for the EU?

The EU’s Global Gateway isn’t operating in a vacuum. Through the African Union Agenda 2063 blueprint, initiatives such as the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA), the African Visa-free Area, and the Single African Digital Market have drawn global attention. Similarly, Africa’s ascendancy into the G20 (now G21) in September 2023 secured its place as a vital player on the global stage. In essence, Europe and Africa aren’t just neighbours, Europe needs Africa, and Africa needs Europe.

The success of the Global Gateway Strategy hinges on Europe’s ability to build trust with African nations. Nigeria, for example, one of the continent’s largest economies, has yet to sign the Economic Partnership Agreement (EPA) for West Africa, fearing it would expose the country’s industries and small businesses to external pressures and competition. Bottlenecks such as this raise a recurring question when engaging with the EU: “What’s in it for Europe?” And more importantly, “At what cost to Africa?”

Even though the EU has self-serving interests, the aim of its Global Gateway Initiative (GGI) is to bridge Africa’s vast digital divide. This contest not only pits Europe against China and other global powers but also makes Africa a central battleground with teeming suitors. Without mincing words, one of Europe’s interests is access to African raw materials. Europe is not shy to admit it needs materials such as copper, nickel, lithium, cobalt and other rare earth essentials from Africa for its green energy transition and “green” reindustrialization.

According to documents obtained when nineteen (19) African Union Media Fellows paid a visit to the European Parliament in June 2024, out of the 225 flagship EU projects approved in 2023 and 2024, 116 are in Africa, and of the 114 Team Europe Initiatives, 75 target Africa.

Even though the European Union considers Africa a privileged partner of strategic importance, there will always be concerns on the continent about how private-sector investment translates into tangible benefits for Africans.

For instance, despite the global interest in mining cobalt from the DRC, it hasn’t led to any visible improvements in the country. Instead, it has plunged the country into severe conflict as the world scrambles for its natural resources. So, while the Global Gateway offers undeniable potential for Africa’s economic growth, the pressing question is how to ensure that Africa is protected in this new partnership.

The road ahead

The EU’s Global Gateway is an ambitious undertaking that, if successful, could usher in a new era of partnership and shared prosperity for Africa and Europe. With 11 of the world's 20 fastest-growing economies in Africa, according to the African Development Bank‘s macroeconomic performance and outlook report, Africa is the second-fastest growing region after Asia. It remains to be seen whether this partnership is the “win-win” touted by Brussels or a mere attempt to restore colonial and post-colonial relations with Africa.

China's impact on the Rogun Dam Project in Tajikistan

Shahida Yakub — Wed, 20 Nov 2024 12:00:27 +0000

The project has significant social and environmental implications

Originally published on Global Voices

The Rogun Dan being constructed. Image by Sosh19632 via Wikimedia Commons, CC BY-SA 4.0.

The Rogun Dam, located on the Vakhsh River in Tajikistan, is one of the most ambitious hydropower projects in the world, let alone in Central Asia. Designed to be the world's tallest dam, with a projected height of 335 meters (1,099 feet), it is poised to transform Tajikistan’s energy landscape by providing an estimated output of 13.1bn kWh, with a total capacity of 3,600 MW.

About 90 percent of energy in Tajikistan is created through hydropower, with the Nurek hydroelectric power station (opened in 1980) producing 11.4 bln kHw — almost half of all electric power produced in Tajikistan.

Tajikistan’s energy sector has been in a state of crisis for years now. This crisis is due mainly to aging power generation assets, many of which have not been modernized since the collapse of the Soviet Union in 1991 ,as well as added pressures due to climate change. Given that so much of Tajikistan's energy generation is driven by hydroelectric power, decreasing water levels due to shrinking glaciers and other climate pressures are causes for concern.

The Vakhsh River, which has been experiencing a decrease in water levels due to mismanagement and climate change. Screenshot of video “20201201 Rogun Dam – Video Drone” by Marco Piscoya. Fair use.

In 2020, Tajik officials released a statement notifying residents that there would be electricity use limits and outages throughout the country, largely because “the volume of water in the country’s largest river Vakhsh had fallen by 50 percent. As a result … the water level of the Nurek reservoir, had fallen by 17 metres compared to 2019.” This decrease in water meant the Nurek Dam was unable to meet the country's electricity needs.

These limitations on energy consumption have become an annual event in Tajikistan, especially during winter. Despite the decreased water levels, Emomali Rahmon, the Tajik president, maintains that “with the construction of Rogun Dam, we are not only resolving the problems with electric energy for the population, but we are also creating a solid basis for the development of various spheres of economy.”

Construction of the Rogun Dam started in 1976, but it was stopped due to political and funding challenges. As of November 2018, 75 of the total 335 meters had been built, and one turbine of six is in operation. Officials estimate that, with proper funding, the dam could be fully completed by 2028.

China's expanding role in Central Asia

China's growing influence in Central Asia is part of its larger Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) strategy, wherein it is seeking to expand infrastructure and trade links between China and various regions of the world. Tajikistan, as a strategically important landlocked country bordering China, is a key partner in the BRI framework. This relationship is underpinned by Chinese investments in infrastructure, mining, and hydropower.

China’s involvement in the Rogun Dam project is driven by its geopolitical interests, desire to secure stable energy supplies, and strategic influence over Central Asian infrastructure.

Building the Rogun Dam requires vast financial resources. When the project first resumed in 2008, officials estimated the overall cost would be about USD 3 billion, but this amount has ballooned over the years to over USD 9.7 billion total. For a country like Tajikistan, whose economy is relatively small and reliant on remittances, this is a monumental expense. So far, Tajikistan has already spent USD 3.3 billion on the project but still lacks at least USD 6.4 billion to finish building the dam, according to estimates made in August 2024. During the last decade, the projected costs of completing the Rogun Dam have increased by 15 percent annually.

Chinese banks and investment institutions have become key financiers of infrastructure projects across Central Asia, including Tajikistan. Chinese funding has supplemented Tajikistan's efforts to finance the dam, either through direct investments or loans to Tajikistan’s government.

Chinese investment in the Rogun Dam Project

Tajikistan and the Rogun Dam. Image by C1MM via Wikipedia, CC BY-SA 3.0.

China’s influence on the Rogun Dam project is part of its broader strategy to increase its presence in Central Asia. While Tajikistan is the main driver of the project, Chinese financial resources, technical expertise, and geopolitical interests have had a significant impact on its development.

It's noteworthy that, even as China seeks to strengthen its ties in Central Asia, the scale of Chinese financing is very limited compared to other investors in the dam. According to an analyst who spoke to Global Voices on condition of anonymity, “Chinese actors tend to avoid investment in controversial projects.” While Chinese companies have previously explored hydroelectric projects in Tajikistan, most of these efforts were abandoned to appease downstream Uzbekistan, which could see its water supply suffer if the upstream rivers are dammed, thereby hindering its cotton industry. Criticism from environmental groups is also spooking further Chinese investment.

But money isn't the only way China is supporting the project. China’s contribution to the Rogun Dam project is also evident in its technical assistance and engineering expertise. Chinese companies have established a dominant presence in Central Asian infrastructure development, including hydropower projects. Chinese engineers, contractors, and firms bring expertise that is critical for the construction of such a massive and complex project as the Rogun Dam.

But China has its own motivations for supporting the effort, despite the controversy.

While Tajik officials hope the dam will be able to solve its electricity crisis, they also are looking to their energy-starved neighbors as potential customers for the surpluses energy that is produced. Uzbekistan, Afghanistan, and Pakistan are especially attractive options that would benefit from a reliable, sustainable energy source. In securing water and electricity resources through Central Asia, China is indirectly supporting its broader regional water and energy interests, as well as ensuring the stability of energy supplies that feed into its Belt and Road Initiative.

Environmental and social implications

Even as the Rogun Dam promises considerable economic and energy benefits, its environmental and social impacts are significant, and China’s involvement further complicates the equation.

Environmental activists report that over 7,000 people have already been displaced from the reservoir zone, and it is estimated that some 38,000 more are going to be further resettled to other regions of Tajikistan. However, this displacement was not without controversy. There were complaints that governmental compensation was not enough to buy a new house in the area of relocation.

Moreover, activists also raise concerns about mismanagement and lack of financial transparency in the construction of the dam. It was reported that, five years ago, one of the dam's power generators stopped working. In an interview with the analytical site Cabar.asia, a Tajik energy expert says that poor-quality cement, reinforcements, and other low-quality building materials have been used during the construction. Moreover, environmental activists say there has been a lack of transparency surrounding the construction and point out the high levels of corruption in Tajikistan, and the lack of public discussions of the project amid longstanding suppression of human rights in the country.

Environmental activists have also expressed fears that the dam will disrupt the natural flow of the Vakhsh River, affecting biodiversity and agriculture in downstream areas.

China’s track record on environmental considerations in infrastructure projects has been mixed. While Chinese investment brings much-needed funding, it also raises concerns about environmental oversight and long-term sustainability. Some critics argue that Chinese-backed infrastructure projects often prioritize economic gains over environmental protections, exacerbating the negative consequences of large-scale dams.

As the Rogun Dam nears completion, the balance of these factors will shape the future of Tajikistan’s energy landscape and its relationship with China. The dam represents not only a milestone in Tajikistan’s development but also a microcosm of the broader dynamics shaping Central Asia’s integration into China’s Belt and Road Initiative.

To learn more about the intersection of Chinese development projects and climate justice in the Global Majority, see our Climate Justice Fellowship Project:

Mass killings leave dozens dead, rattling Chinese society

Oiwan Lam — Tue, 19 Nov 2024 16:00:26 +0000

Three mass and random killings occurred within two weeks this month

Originally published on Global Voices

Zhuhai residents offered flowers to commemorate 35 victims killed in a car ramming attack on November 11th, 2024. Screenshot from BBC Chinese channel on YouTube.

In less than two weeks, three random mass killings unfolded in Chinese coastal cities. Each of the attacks were reportedly driven by social discontent, leading to discussions on the increasing social tension in China.

Given that China has already implemented very strict security measures, including security checkpoints and security cameras with facial recognition systems, people wonder if the state's social control machinery is still capable of handling the increasing number of random attacks triggered by unresolvable grievances during an economic downturn.

The first incident took place on November 11th outside a sports centre in Zhuhai, a southern Chinese coastal city, wherein a car rammed into a crowd, leaving 35 dead and 43 injured. The driver was a 62-year-old man who was angry over a court ruling on the division of property during his divorce, according to the Zhuhai police’s media briefing.

The second incident took place on November 16th inside a vocational school in Wuxi, an eastern Chinese city, wherein a 21-year-old student stabbed eight people to death and injured 17.

The third incident happened on November 19 — a car rammed into pedestrians outside a primary school in Changde of Hunan province:

After the horrific Zhuhai rampage and Wuxi school stabbing, yet another “collision” incident (撞人事件) occurred at a primary school in Changde this Tuesday morning. Many students injured, casualties unknown at this time. (Viewer discretion advised) pic.twitter.com/nfcNOnyuPU

— Manya Koetse (@manyapan) November 19, 2024

After the Zhuhai incident, the Chinese government suppressed all related discussions on social media. At the same time, Chinese President Xi Jinping urged for severe punishment of the assailant and instructed the local governments to prevent similar incidents from ocurring by addressing social conflicts and disputes before they escalate into extreme acts.

Yet, within one week, another random killing occurred. This time, the assailant left an online note saying that he committed the act because of the injustice and exploitation he faced in his factory job:

当雪崩的时候，没有一片雪花是无辜的。所有人其实都是一个整体，一个人的不幸就是所有人的不幸… 对于厂里恶意拖欠我工资，不给我买保险，不给我加班费，罚我的款，不给我赔偿金。厂里的工人每天生死轮回两班倒或三班倒，一天工作16个小时，一个月没有一天休息… 我看到了工厂对工人无情的压榨与剥削。…我宁可死也不愿再被压榨与剥削，我希望以我的死推动劳动法的进步。还有学校恶意扣我毕业证，不让我毕业，…你们太欺负我了，所有的人都在欺负我，别以为我是老实人，有些账总要清算的，我要用生命去战斗，我将彻底洗刷我的耻辱，我要揭开暴露这个事情。

When an avalanche occurs, no snowflake is innocent. All people are connected as a whole; one person's misfortune is the misfortune of all people… The factory maliciously withheld my salary, did not buy me insurance, did not pay me overtime, fined me, and did not give me compensation. Workers in the factory work in hell every day for two or three shifts, 16 hours a day, without a day off in a month… I have seen the relentless oppression and exploitation of workers in the factory… I would rather die than be oppressed and exploited again, and I hope that my death will push the labour law forward. There is also the school that maliciously withheld my diploma and prevented me from graduating… You bullied me too much; all of you bullied me. Don't you see me as dumb, some scores must be settled, I'm going to fight with my life, I'm going to wash away my shame completely, I'm going to unveil and expose these matters.

Despite the state's stringent social control, random and mass murders have been a frequent occurrence in China. An academic study published in 2022 indicated that between 2004 and 2017, about half of the world’s mass stabbing incidents occurred in China.

In recent years, as China has suffered from an economic downturn, the rate of random mass attacks has soared. As the assailants have no specific targets in their murder attempts, most Chinese media outlets have labelled such crimes “an act of taking revenge on society” (報復社會行為).

On Weibo, China's largest social media platform, many asked if the Chinese government can effectively stop the crime as the act is “irrational” and suicidal. Law professor Lao Dongyan, for example, wrote:

近期连续出现以极端暴力无差别攻击不特定多数人的犯罪行为。无论当事人有什么理由，这样的行为本质上等同于恐怖袭击，都绝对不可原谅，应当严厉打击并严加谴责。同时，此类事件也向我们提出了这样一个问题：当一个人抱着必死之心实施极端的反社会行为，刑罚的威慑对其不再有作用，此时应当采取什么样的有效措施来应对？

There has been a spate of criminal acts involving indiscriminate attacks on common people with extreme violence. Regardless of the reasons given by the persons concerned, such acts, which are essentially tantamount to terrorist attacks, are absolutely inexcusable and should be vigorously combated and severely condemned. At the same time, such incidents also raise the question of what kind of effective measures should be taken when a person commits extreme antisocial acts at the expense of their own life when the deterrent effect of penalties are no longer effective against them.

Under Professor Lao’s comment thread, some echoed the official line of harsh punishment, while others called for freedom of expression so that people could express their grievances and the authorities could address their pain in time. Some also suggested economic reform to boost the employment rate and policy reform, such as social welfare and labour laws, to improve working conditions. In short, people need to see hope for their future.

On X (formerly Twitter), @sbtuite2222, sees says political reform will be a major source of hope:

对社会怀有怨恨的人实施的被称为“社会报复”的犯罪行为正在增加。无论增加多少监控摄像头，都很难阻止此类犯罪。防止此类事件发生的有效方法是建立一个让陷入困境的人也能得到救济的社会，这种救济除了覆盖民生也涉及法治层面——有饭吃能申冤，但中国政府会采取这样的措施吗？

— Nakamori Hideo (@sbtuite2222) November 14, 2024

Crimes known as “social revenge”, committed by people who resent society, are on the rise. No matter how many additional surveillance cameras are added, it will be difficult to stop such crimes. An effective way to prevent such incidents is to build a society in which those who are in trouble have access to remedies that cover not only livelihoods but also the rule of law — so that people have food and the power to redress their grievances — but will the Chinese government take such measures?

However, as anticipated, the Chinese authorities are fixated on their standard social control handbook. While social profiling is common in China through it's social credit system, on Weibo, many said that the Chinese Communist Party’s grassroots branches have started profiling residents into additional categories, namely, “4-without” (四無) and “5-failure” (五失).

The “4-without” are those without a spouse and children, job and regular income, normal social connections, and assets like property and cars. The “5-failure” are those who “fail” in their investments, lives, relationships, and suffer from mental illness.

The party branches were told to pay special attention to people labelled “4-without” and “5-failure” as they are assumed to have nothing to lose, and thus might be more likely to harm society.

However, such a measure won’t relieve the social strain. One social media user pointed out that the two social groups are victims of an unjust system and need assistance, rather than further social labels and control. He puts it:

排查出来了，然后呢，关进监狱？四无五失人员又没有犯法，他们几乎都需要财务援助，中共没有一套完善的社会福利保障体系，如何让这些遇到难关的人暂时渡过难关？中共只会给地方政府“化债”，可以给维稳体系大撒币,但是对于真正源头问题，一分钱都不肯花！筑坝挡水和疏通河道，哪种更有效，中共不懂么？

— James-江南晓渡 (@james17_Canada) November 14, 2024

Having them screened out, and then what, put in jail? [People labelled] 4-without and 5-failure have not broken the law, and almost all of them are in need of economic assistance. The CCP does not have a comprehensive social welfare system, so how can it let these people who are in trouble get through their difficulties? The CCP keeps giving local governments money to solve their debt crisis, and it keeps pumping money into the stability maintenance system, but it is not willing to spend any money to solve the real problem! Shouldn’t the CCP know which is more effective: damming or dredging the river?

China's investment in agriculture in Tajikistan: A focus on growth and pesticide use

Shahida Yakub — Mon, 18 Nov 2024 22:42:09 +0000

Chinese farmers are remarkably productive — but at a steep cost

Originally published on Global Voices

A field of cotton in Tajikistan. Image from Flickr, World Bank Photos. License CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

Even though Tajikistan is considered an agricultural country, only six percent of its territory is arable land, the rest is mountainous. Despite this, agriculture provides 20 percent of the country's GDP and over 45 percent of the country's employment.

Tajikistan is one of the world's top exporters of raw cotton. In 2022, Tajikistan exported USD 212 million worth of raw cotton, making it the 12th largest exporter in the world.

However, Tajikistan’s cotton sector suffers from outdated machinery, low-quality seeds, insufficient government support for local farmers, and a lack of foreign investors willing to develop Tajikistan’s cotton and textile industries. Moreover, Tajikistan’s legal framework, corruption, and top-down power structures make this country unattractive to Western investors.

China offered Tajikistan a helping hand and invested over USD 3.8 billion over the last ten years, mainly in mining and agribusiness. China’s investments in Tajikistan's cotton industry reflect a broader strategy to enhance agricultural production and secure raw materials for its textile industry.

China’s cotton diplomacy

While international donors and foreign investors were wary of investing in Tajikistan, Chinese companies have been willing to navigate Tajikistan's complicated political web.

An exiled Tajik opposition member who spoke to Global Voices on conditions of anonymity said that in order to do business in Tajikistan, anyone, be it a foreign or local company or businessman, needs to have some sort of “roof,” i.e. patronage from local or state officials in order to secure business. And this kind of protection is often remunerated by payments or bribes.

One of the lawyers of the international law firms working in Tajikistan who was interviewed for a study on Chinese Cotton Diplomacy in Tajikistan says: “Chinese.. their work rules are different from other [investors]. In the first stage they work closely with us but … after 15 days they contact …officials and they are open to bribes, yes they do not need our services except [for] officials.”

Land lease

Chinese President Xi Jinping and Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon. Screenshot from YouTube.

Tajikistan has approximately 724,000 hectares of arable land, all of which are heavily reliant on irrigation due to the country’s mountainous terrain. Beginning in 2012, Tajikistan leased around 18,000 hectares of its land to China for cotton, rice, grain, and corn cultivation for a 49-year contract. The agreement was part of a broader initiative to strengthen economic ties between the two countries.

The main problem with this agreement is that its terms and conditions have not been disclosed. It is not clear what — if any — systems have been implemented regarding inspecting and regulating the lands leased by Chinese farmers.

In an interview with Radio Ozodi, the spokesperson of the Ministry of Agriculture, Narzullo Dodoboyev, said the land leased to Chinese farmers are “abandoned lands affected by erosion.” He also said that Chinese companies are going to invest in order to restore this land and start cultivating crops.

A regional expert who spoke to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity said that “China has a lot of expertise in turning land affected by erosion into a working land, through the ‘terracing method,’ which slows down soil erosion.”

And indeed, the results yielded by Chinese farmers are quite remarkable. In 2015, Tajikistan's deputy minister of agriculture, Sidjovuddin Isroilov, praised the Chinese company Xinxian Inhai which leased 6,300 hectares of land in the Khatlon region of Tajikistan. In one of its districts, the group cultivated the highest grain and cotton yield in the country.

However, a regional expert who spoke to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity pointed out that “the nature of agriculture in Tajikistan is based on irrigation and water brings weeds which have to be dealt with by using pesticides. Pesticides enter the soil and ultimately end up in water basins, most likely in the Amudarya River,” which flows through Tajikistan, Uzbekistan, Turkmenistan, and Afghanistan.

The Belt and Road Initiative

China is keen to help Chinese companies develop their work abroad within the framework of “The Belt and Road Initiative” (BRI), it's massive international development plan.

Over the past eight years, China has invested in more than 820 agricultural projects in partner countries, with an investment stock exceeding USD 17 billion. In 2020, the total agricultural trade volume with partner countries reached USD 95.79 billion.

In Tajikistan, these efforts have been a boon for Chinese companies, as they are released from paying VAT when they import equipment and seed materials from China. The Tajik government doesn’t disclose the terms and conditions of these lease agreements.

The Head of a Water Users’ Association (WUA) in southern Tajikistan meets cotton farmers to discuss irrigation requirements. Image from Flickr. License CC BY-NC-ND 2.0.

On the other hand, independent Tajik farmers have been left at a big disadvantage compared to well-financed Chinese agricultural companies. They have little to no support from the Tajik state. It is also difficult for them to get bank loans to buy modern equipment since they are exclusively offered short-term loans at high interest rates, which makes it nearly impossible for farmers to pay it back.

Fertilizers and pesticides

While China may be benefitting from its agricultural investments, they could be leaving a dangerous legacy in the host countries, namely: long-lasting pollution.

In 2018, the Chinese state agency Xinhua published a story about Chinese farmer Duan Li, whose company, Hunfank, from China's Henan province, invested over USD 31 million in agriculture in Tajikistan. Over 6,000 hectares of land that had been developed by this company became polluted and unsuitable for agriculture. Henan province is the major agricultural and a major food province in China, and some studies show that the vast amounts of chemical fertilizers used there are causing soil and water pollution.

China, the largest agricultural country in the world, typically uses 1.5 to 4 times as much pesticides per hectare as the world average. Pesticides play an important role in increasing productivity, reducing crop loss by controlling destructive pests and reducing diseases. However, pesticides are frequently linked to risks to soil health, water contamination, human poisoning, and damaging ecosystems.

Farmers in China also heavily rely on agricultural mulch film, a synthetic polymer compound material that will stay in the soil if it is not cleaned or picked up during agricultural production.

This problem is not isolated to Tajikistan. A regional expert who is monitoring China's farming practices in Russia, who spoke to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity, says that “Chinese farmers were achieving remarkable crops in Russia, but they used pesticides and other chemicals, which ultimately made the land unusable.” A number of reports in Russian media about the harmful consequences of Chinese farming practices in Russia have corroborated this claim.

Concerned experts

Global Voices approached several agricultural experts in Tajikistan and spoke to journalists who write about agriculture. However, none of them were able to comment on what kind of fertilizers and pesticides are used by Chinese farmers or the scale of their application on the crops. There is no publicly available information on this, and because civil society is deeply repressed in Tajikistan, it is unlikely that any independent research is possible on this matter.

One regional expert who spoke to Global Voices on the condition of anonymity, says that the agreement between Tajikistan and China on land lease “should have included a document about the system of controls of farming methods. But it is very likely that such a document doesn’t exist and that Tajikistan just leased the farming land to China and [is turning] a blind eye on what is going on.”

Because Tajikistan’s agriculture is heavily based on irrigation, ultimately, chemicals and pesticides used to promote crops are washed into the Amudarya river. However, local agriculture specialists point out that “neither Chinese nor Tajik farmers are too concerned about following environmental regulations and it leads to soil alkalization.”

It's undeniable that China's lease of agricultural fields in Tajikistan has led to several positive outcomes. The lease brought investment into the struggling Tajik agricultural sector, providing much-needed capital for local farmers. Chinese companies bring modern agricultural technology that has helped enhance productivity in Tajikistan's cotton sector. Improved methods and resources have also led to higher yields, benefiting the local economy and contributing to Tajikistan's export potential. However, the lack of transparency regarding fertilizers and pesticides poses a major environmental and social threat — one that has yet to be fully explored or understood because of Tajikistan's repressive environment toward media and civil society.

Influx of student bike riders from Zhengzhou to Kaifeng overwhelm Chinese authorities

Oiwan Lam — Tue, 12 Nov 2024 18:21:36 +0000

What began as a tourism tool, devolved into a free speech issue

Originally published on Global Voices

Screenshot from @QGHDZ’s YouTube Channel. The photoshopped slogan at the back says: Go eat the baozi!

Chinese authorities in Henan imposed campus lockdowns in several universities after tens of thousands of students set off on a nighttime bike ride from Zhengzhou, the capital city of the province, to Kaifeng, a tourist city.

The trend of night bike rides began on June 18, when four young women took off for a 50-kilometre bike ride at 7 pm from Zhengzhou and arrived around midnight at the ancient city of Kaifeng, just to taste its famous soup dumplings (Guantang bao). As their expedition went viral online, students across Zhengzhou joined in and organised their own nighttime bike rides for Kaifeng’s baozi.

At first, Kaifeng City officials welcomed the students, thinking their photos on social media might attract tourists to the ancient Chinese city. To hype up the trend, the city authorities waived students’ ticket fees for major tourist sites and sent police officers to ensure road safety at night. Three major bicycle-sharing platform operators also enabled their bikes for cross-city trips. State-owned media, such as China Daily, even praised the night riders for their sense of adventure. Here is the Chinese government-funded CGTN’s report on the night ride on X:

Night cycling in China went viral across the country after four female university students from Zhengzhou biked 50km to Kaifeng for some dumplings. Find out more. pic.twitter.com/DEuIGxOeia

— CGTN America (@cgtnamerica) November 11, 2024

The state's U-turn

After weeks of bike rides, the trend turned sour last weekend as young people from other regions and cities travelled to Zhengzhou to join a mass night ride to Kaifeng on November 8.

During the 5-hour trip, most bikers were singing patriotic songs and slogans. But occasionally, politically sensitive phrases which are highly censored by the Chinese state popped up, as highlighted by Teacher Li, an overseas Chinese dissident and social media influencer:

11月8日晚，郑州骑行至开封的学生们，一名学生高喊“共产党万岁！
另一名学生挥舞印有“自由我踏妈来啦”字样的旗帜，结果第二天河南多所高校封校。 pic.twitter.com/HHrxHzoXHM

— 李老师不是你老师 (@whyyoutouzhele) November 9, 2024

At night, on November 8, among students riding from Zhengzhou to Kaifeng, one shouted, “Long Live the Communist Party!” Another student carried a flag with the slogan, “I am riding towards freedom”. But then, several colleges in Henan were locked down the next day.

It is estimated that over 200,000 people joined the night ride on November 8th, flooding the highways and the ancient city with bikes. On November 9th, police blocked bicycles from entering the highways between Zhengzhou and Kaifeng, citing road safety concerns. The US government-funded Radio Free Asia collected video footage from mainland Chinese social media and reported on the clampdown:

【夜骑开封第二高潮：警方封路, 骑手徒步行走】
河南自行车队伍11月9日凌晨再出发，形成 #夜骑开封以来第二个高潮。充斥着共享单车的车队长达数十公里，引发当局关注。#郑开大道郑州段对非机动车道施行禁行。夜骑至开封的学生将大量单车遗弃在开封大梁门，不少人出行受阻。 pic.twitter.com/9H6A5BvGzO

— 自由亚洲电台 (@RFA_Chinese) November 10, 2024

[The second mass night ride to Kaifeng: Police blocked the roads, and riders walk on foot]
Riders from Henan set off again in the early hours of November 9th, embarking on the second mass #NightRidetoKaifeng. Bikes from ride sharing platforms occupied the road for dozens of kilometres, and the authorities were alerted. Non-motorized vehicles were banned from entering the Zhengzhou section of #ZhengkaiAvenue. A large number of bikes were left behind outside the Da Liang Gate of Kaifeng City by the student riders. Traffic was blocked.

In addition to traffic control, major bicycle-sharing platforms re-imposed restrictions on their bikes, forbidding riders from taking them outside designated zones, and various sources from Chinese social media indicated that many colleges and universities in Henan Province had locked their campus to prevent students from joining the night rides.

There was much discussion and speculation on Chinese social media about the officials’ sudden U-turn.

The official explanation is that Kaifeng City does not have enough capacity to host so many bikers and that the arrival of tens of thousands of bikes has paralysed the road traffic.

According to Teacher Li, many bikers found this unfair. One biker who had taken part in the cross-city bike ride noted that the crowds were caused by Kaifeng City’s choice to offer free tickets to their tourist sites to boost their own reputation. He argued that the students did not cause the traffic congestion and had no political agenda as they undertook the bike ride in order to participate in a group activity. Teacher Li added:

這次事件反映的第一件事，我覺得是現在年輕人是渴望參與公共活動的。這種自發性的大規模群眾聚集活動在中國是極為罕見的，僅僅用跟風來解釋這件事是不足以說服人的，人民群眾能有那麼大的熱情，我覺得最大的原因是，這種活動能給大家帶來某種感動，這種感動可能就是國內缺少的公共事件、公共活動的參與。

Firstly, this incident reflects young people's yearning to participate in public activities. This kind of spontaneous large-scale crowd-gathering activity in China is extremely rare, and to write the the incident off as ‘trendy phenomena’ is not convincing enough. The reason behind people’s enthusiasm is that this kind of activity triggers a certain emotion [which is missing], because in mainland China, we rarely have the opportunity to participate in civil and public activities.

However, despite students’ intentions, the state soon perceived the cycling collective as a threat. On November 9th, many universities and colleges in Henan issued lockdown notices. To prevent students from participating in the night ride to Kaifeng, some schools demanded students obtain a special permit to leave the campus. A few lockdown notices circulated online also indicated that the decision came from the provincial government or above, with strong wordings that suggested the incident may be affecting social stability.

So what are the authorities so worried about? Dialogue China, an online analysis publication, pointed to the soaring youth unemployment problem:

近日，郑州大学生发起大规模“夜骑”至开封，11月8日达到高潮，车队长达数十公里，塞满共享单车。这种“特种兵旅游”引发当局高度关注，并警告境外势力风险。此举引发网友调侃：十年郑开同城化不如学生一夜骑行。此事件背景是青年失业率飙升，2024年毕业生1179万，实际青年失业率或高达46.5%。 pic.twitter.com/fegwOLdpT0

— 对话中国 Dialogue China (@dialogue_china) November 9, 2024

Recently, college students in Zhengzhou launched a massive ‘night ride’ to Kaifeng. The turnout reached its climax on November 8. The bike fleet was dozens of kilometres long, [the whole highway] was filled with shared bicycles. This kind of ‘special tourist troop’ concerned the authorities, who warned of the risk of foreign interference. Netizens joked that the decades-long plan to merge Zhengzhou and Kaifeng was eventually accomplished by student bike riders. The context of this incident concerns the soaring youth unemployment problem. With 11.79 million college students graduating in 2024, youth unemployment could be as high as 46.5 percent [an estimation from 2023].

Political speculation

As the students’ actions began to draw global attention, overseas dissidents started drawing political associations around the incident.

Some argued that Kaifeng (開封) in Chinese means open or unseal and that riding to Kaifeng symbolizes marching to openness. Some also speculated that the authorities’ suppression was triggered by the sensitive word “baozi”, which is a nickname for Xi Jinping.

Regardless of the reason, the Chinese authorities’ panic has prompted some good laughs on overseas Chinese social media. @QGHDZ’s song went viral on YouTube and X:

The lyrics are full of irony:

黨啊！親愛的媽媽 / 您不要慌不要怕 / 我們沒有說您的懷話 / 更不敢把您罵 / 我們只是到開封吃吃包子 / 同學們一起說說話 / 這個國家您是老大 / 14億人只聽您的話 / 我們敬愛的習大大 / 多次為包子站台和講話 / 雖沒北京、天津的包子名氣大 / 我們開封的包子味道也不差

Party [CCP]! Dear Mo. Don't panic. Don't be afraid. We didn't speak ill of you. We didn't dare to criticize you. We just went to Kaifeng to eat steamed buns. To talk with our classmates. You are the leader of this country. 1.4 billion people only listen to you. Our beloved Xi the Greatness. Has stood up and spoken for buns many times. Though they're not as famous as those from Beijing and Tianjin. The flavor of our Kaifeng buns is not bad, either.

Impunity continues to threaten the work of journalists across Southeast Asia

Mong Palatino — Mon, 11 Nov 2024 19:45:31 +0000

Harassment, state-backed attacks, arbitrary detention, media killings persist in the region

Originally published on Global Voices

Press freedom advocates in the Philippines call for the release of detained journalist Frenchie Mae Cumpio in a protest in front of the Department of Justice. Photo by Lito Ocampo, used with permission.

Media and human rights groups across the Southeast Asian region marked the United Nation's International Day to End Impunity for Crimes against Journalists on November 2 by releasing statements and organizing events highlighting the challenges and continuing threats faced by reporters in fulfilling their work.

Cambodia

In Cambodia, civil society groups issued a joint statement expressing concern about the deteriorating media situation even after a new government assumed power in 2023. They cited a report that showed 28 cases of harassment against 46 journalists in the first nine months of 2024.

Targeting journalists — particularly those reporting on human rights issues — undermines freedoms of expression and the press, thereby threatening the public’s access to information. This environment complicates efforts to hold those in power accountable for their wrongdoing. When authorities fail to investigate and punish perpetrators of crimes against journalists, it conveys the message that such offences are permissible.

A recent example of harassment was the arrest and detention of award-winning investigative journalist Mech Dara who exposed the proliferation of cyber scams in the country. He was released on bail but soon announced his retirement from journalism after his traumatic ordeal.

Cambodian journalists are often harassed or imprisoned for publishing work critical of the government. Environmental journalists and those who speak out about the government's forced displacement of Indigenous groups are particularly at risk.

Malaysia

Another country that failed to undertake necessary media reforms even after a new government rose to power is Malaysia, which continues to rely on repressive, colonial-era laws to silence dissent and intimidate journalists. Civil society groups reiterated the demand for the formation of a media council to help bolster free press in the country.

We urge that the Malaysian Media Council as an independent, multistakeholder self-regulatory body for the industry be established, without further delay, and be given the mandate to have the powers to protect journalists — legally, physically, economically, and socially — and the integrity of our media landscape.

They also drew attention to the financial constraints undermining the work of media outlets:

A growing concern that threatens Malaysia’s media landscape recently has been economic violence in the form of low wages, unsafe working conditions, and job insecurity.

Philippines

Media groups urged Philippine authorities to pursue justice for the 2011 murder of broadcast journalist Gerry Ortega, whose case has become “emblematic of the entrenched impunity in media killings” in the country.

Media killings have continued, with most of which remaining unresolved up to this day. The National Union of Journalists of the Philippines warns against the chilling effect of impunity.

Each year that passes risks relegating these murders further into the past and sends the message that attacks against journalists are to be expected and can be expected to be done with impunity. Already, many of our colleagues see these attacks as just part of the territory. While there is inherent risk in journalism and media work, attacks against journalists cannot be normalized.

They vow to continue the fight for justice.

Keeping their stories alive, reporting on the progress — or lack of it — in their cases, and seeking accountability for these crimes are some of the ways we can make sure they are not forgotten.

Media groups also called for the release of journalist Frenchie Mae Cumpio, whose trumped-up criminal cases reflect the weaponization of laws and judicial processes to arbitrarily detain critical reporters.

#Philippines: CPJ urges authorities to drop vindictive charges against journalist Frenchie Mae Cumpio ahead of her November 11 trial.

Read more about the case: https://t.co/g9Q3eEj0R3 @bongbongmarcos pic.twitter.com/SCfwVoUePe

— CPJ Asia (@CPJAsia) November 7, 2024

Myanmar

After the February 2021 coup, the junta imposed absolute media censorship and waged a brutal crackdown targeting opposition forces and even members of the press. At least eight journalists have been killed over the past three years. According to the Independent Myanmar Journalists Association, a total of 177 journalists have been detained, and 53 remain in custody. The Committee to Protect Journalists summed up the dire media situation in Myanmar:

The Myanmar junta has crushed the independent media by banning outlets, raiding media offices, and targeting journalists with arrests and killings over the past four years. The country is also the world’s second-worst jailer of journalists after China.

The civilian National Unity Government, which represents the resistance, issued a statement condemning the junta’s systematic assault on freedom of expression.

The military's systematic campaign of violence, harassment, and intimidation has turned journalism into an occupation fraught with peril. Today, we call attention not only to these crimes but also to the wider impact of the military's assault on freedom of expression. By silencing journalist, the terrorist military council seeks to suppress the truth, restrict the people's awareness, and stifle calls for accountability.

What will a second Trump presidency in the US mean for Taiwan?

New Bloom — Sat, 09 Nov 2024 00:05:43 +0000

Unpredictable times are ahead for Taiwan

Originally published on Global Voices

Image created by OIwan Lam with Canva.

This article was originally written by Brian Hioe and published in New Bloom on November 6, 2024. It is republished on Global Voices on a content partnership agreement.

While the US presidential election has yet to be formally called, results currently suggest that the winner will be former US president Donald Trump. As such, Taiwan will soon need to contend with the possibility of a second Trump presidency.

There have largely been two schools of thought in Taiwan about the prospect of a second Trump presidency. The first points to the possibility of significant disruption to strengthening US-Taiwan ties under a Democratic presidential administration.

Namely, Trump was originally seen as an ally by many in Taiwan after his willingness to break from decades of diplomatic precedence in 2016 by taking a phone call as president-elect from then-Taiwanese president Tsai Ing-wen. Trump has demonstrated some significant opposition to China, as is common for Republican presidents.

Nevertheless, perceptions of Trump in Taiwan gradually shifted, particularly because Trump demonstrated a highly transactional view of US-Taiwan relations and lashed out at Taiwan on protectionist grounds. Even if the US-China trade war began under Trump, Trump's statements have sometimes demonstrated an unusually positive view of Chinese President Xi Jinping. Such statements have sometimes raised the dangerous possibility of Trump offering Taiwan to China to secure favourable terms on a trade deal. Other comments by Trump have denigrated Taiwan’s size in comparison to China or lashed out at Taiwan with the accusation that Taiwan stole the semiconductor industry from the US. As such, Trump has come to be seen as dangerous for Taiwan.

The second school of thought, however, suggests that there was no fundamental disruption to US policy under the first Trump administration and that despite his inflammatory rhetoric, the Trump administration’s policy was still largely within expectations. The argument is that the second Trump administration will prove similar, even if the Biden administration was seen as having continued policies intended to take a harder line on China that began under the Trump administration and brought a more steady hand to it, which a prospective Harris administration was likely to maintain.

It is true that the structural factors that dictate increased tensions between the US and China have not changed, whether under the first Trump administration, the Biden administration, or a second Trump administration. However, there are reasons to believe that appointees to a second Trump administration would not be the individuals present in the first Trump administration who were seen as having a moderating impact on its actions. Instead, with Trump suspicious of potential turncoats when many of the key officials in his administration later sought to challenge him, Trump is instead likely to make appointments on the basis of personal loyalty. As seen with leaked plans for what has been referred to as Project 2025, Trump may potentially seek to gut the government in order to strengthen control by his ideological adherents. To this extent, it is possible that there will not be restraining forces within a second Trump administration.

It is impossible to know how the second Trump administration will play out. Trump may maintain the current course of action on China, but there is also, indeed, the danger of Trump sacrificing Taiwan to make a deal with China.

Whether with Ukraine or Taiwan, Trump has suggested that through personal intervention — and his strong personal relationship with Xi and Russian President Vladimir Putin — any potential conflict can be contained. But such statements do, in fact, suggest that dealmaking on the basis of personal ties would take place. And, in line with the protectionist sentiments of Trump’s base that propelled him to victory, Trump is expected to continue to lash out at traditional allies of the US in the Asia Pacific with the accusation that they are freeloaders on defence, whether this be Taiwan, Japan, South Korea, or the Philippines.

If Taiwanese politicians are able to flatter or placate Trump, perhaps not unlike how the now-deceased Shinzo Abe was able to manage Japan’s relationship vis-a-vis the US and Trump on the basis of personal ties, perhaps Taiwan would be able to maintain relations with the US under Trump. But with Taiwan having hewed politically progressive in past years, such a tie would always face the danger of MAGA Republicans who back Trump unpredictably turning on Taiwan on the basis of its domestic social stances.

Otherwise, Trump may lean toward policies that seemingly bring jobs and manufacturing in critical industries, such as the semiconductor industry, back to the US. In this sense, TSMC’s fab in Arizona and similar projects may take on greater significance for Taiwan.

Unpredictable times are ahead for Taiwan. The island has long been subject to the often mercurial winds of American politics, and the second coming of Trump proves no different. That the election result of a single country proves so impactful on Taiwan again highlights the enormous power that America has had over Taiwan exclusively, whether as its security guarantor in contemporary times or its backing of domestic autocrats such as the KMT and Chiang regime during authoritarian times. Taiwan again finds itself far from the master of its own fate, now subject to the imperial whims of the second Trump presidency.

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