Why is Latin America's birth rate declining?

• Translation posted 11 December 2024 12:16 GMT
• Written by Connectas Translated by Dalia Tarek
• Read this post in українська, Português, Español

Illustration from CONNECTAS, used with permission.

This article by Bolivian journalist Fabiola Chambi was originally published in CONNECTAS. A translated and edited version is published on Global Voices under a media partnership agreement.

Paula Landeros, a Chilean, comes from a large family. Her mother has four siblings, and her father has six. There was always a lot of noise in her home, but she is aware that this will change in the future, as she decided not to have children: “It was never an option in my life,” she says with conviction at the age of 42. She doesn't remember playing with dolls, but she did hear frequently, in her Catholic school, that women were destined to procreate. So, she wondered how life would be when she grow up if she didn't want to be a mother.

Paula's decision seems like a global trend that was unthinkable just decades ago when the negative effects of overpopulation were all over the news. English economist and clergyman Thomas Malthus published “Essay on the Principle of Population” in 1798, which became were very popular. The Malthusian theory held that natural resources would decrease while the population would continue to increase wantonly, which would cause poverty, conflicts, and, consequently, the extinction of the human race by 1880.

Today's data raises other questions. According to the World Bank, the current fertility rate at a global level is 2.2 children per woman, and in the 1960s it was 5.3. These figures are better understood if we consider that the generally accepted replacement rate is 2.1 (the number of children to maintain a stable population over time). Nowadays, many women are having fewer babies or simply no babies at all. The large families of yesteryear have been reduced, and even so-called “single-person households” are becoming popular.

According to the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA), Chile, Uruguay, Costa Rica, and Cuba have the lowest fertility rates in Latin America, with an average of 1.5 children per woman. Brazil and Colombia follow with 1.6 and 1.7, respectively. It is estimated that two-thirds of the population reside in regions where fertility does not reach the replacement rate and an increasing number of countries are experiencing a declining birth rate.

This is a complex phenomenon. Martina Yopo Díaz, a PhD in sociology from the University of Cambridge and researcher at the Catholic University of Chile, explains that this transformation has to do with a “greater prevalence and legitimacy in the use of contraceptives and reproductive autonomy. These changes allow, in some way, that women today can have greater decision-making power about being mothers and when to have children.”

All women have the right to comprehensive, quality sexual and reproductive health care that is free from prejudices and culturally relevant.

🟠 Learn more: https://t.co/YFh2ypDEXR

Let's break down the barriers that deny girls, adolescents, and women from exercising their rights. pic.twitter.com/UnLHhdrK2h

UNFPA Peru (@UNFPAPeru) October 24, 2024

Yopo Díaz also says that the progressive incorporation of women into the labor market and into higher education is one of the main causes.

Están participando de manera mucho más activa en esas dos esferas de la sociedad y eso hace que muchas veces posterguen la maternidad o decidan tener menos hijos a lo largo de su ciclo de vida. Y a este descenso se suma una falta de condiciones sociales.

They are participating much more actively in those two spheres of society, and this often leads them to postpone motherhood or decide to have fewer children during their life cycle. And this decline is compounded by a lack of social support.

This is the case of Vanessa Sanjinés, a successful consultant who works in strategic communication. She has been married for 10 years, has no children and no plans to have them. She says that she made the decision as a couple, but she has had a lot of pressure.

Decidí no ser mamá a pesar de que la gente siempre me dice que voy a cambiar de opinión, que soy joven todavía, que mi cuerpo lo va a pedir en algún momento. Yo estoy segura porque estoy más enfocada en mi carrera profesional y en cumplir mis sueños y eso no va a cambiar. Pero sí creo que la sociedad debería cambiar en sus cuestionamientos.

I decided not to be a mom even though people always tell me that I will change my mind, that I am still young, and that my body will ask for it at some point. I am confident [in my decision] because I am more focused on my professional career and on fulfilling my dreams, and that is not going to change. But I do believe that society should change in its questioning.

The new social and economic dynamics

A 2024 report from Chile's National Statistics Institute (INE) reports a 20 percent drop in the birth rate compared to the same period of the previous year. The figures worry some experts in Chile who are analyzing how to reverse the phenomenon, and that has to go beyond the application of public policies.

In fact, the 2023 UNFPA State of Population Report refers to this “demographic anxiety” and indicates that government initiatives that seek to increase fertility rates “almost never have an effect and can violate women's rights.”

Yopo Díaz explains:

Chile es el caso más extremo, pero al final la fecundidad está disminuyendo en todos los países latinoamericanos; entonces nos pone un desafío como sociedad. Quiere decir que nuestro sistema no puede seguir funcionando como hasta ahora. Pero promover la natalidad nunca puede ir sobre el respeto a la autonomía reproductiva y a los derechos humanos (…) Las políticas públicas tienen que ir orientadas a generar las condiciones sociales para que quienes quieran tener hijos puedan hacerlo.

Chile is the most extreme case, but in the end, fertility is decreasing in all Latin American countries; therefore, it challenges us as a society. It means that our system cannot continue to function as it has until now. But promoting the birth rate can never infringe upon respecting reproductive autonomy and human rights (…) Public policies must be oriented towards generating the social conditions for those who want to have children to be able to do so.

The Chilean researcher considers that, according to international evidence, some concrete policies could be implemented, such as free early childhood nurseries, available to both fathers and mothers. Some countries in Asia and Europe provide indirect economic incentives, for example, lower taxes or higher wages, to effectively improve access to basic services, health, education, and housing. These initiatives have been effective in many contexts.

Why Chile has a low birth rate and how it compares with the rest of Latin America https://t.co/a9TRUqIlnB

- BioBioChile (@biobiobio) October 26, 2024

Other contexts are truly challenging, such as in South Korea, where the birth rate is a national priority. In 2023, South Korea recorded 19,200 fewer births than in 2022, and the average number of children per woman fell to 0.72. People there seem determined to follow that trend. One manifestation is the Dinks (Dual Income No Kids) trend, a term used to refer to a couple or marriage with a stable income, without children and without future birth plans.

The birth rate is related to the countries’ economic dynamics, and this is precisely where the concern of some governments lies. In the report “The Demographic Observatory 2023,” the UN Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) found that in Latin America and the Caribbean, with the ever-decreasing population growth rate, the subcontinent will have 737 million inhabitants in 2050, with a labor force of 402.7 million, that is, 54.6 percent of the total population, a worrying number.

In this sense, reconfiguring the global economy is one of our most urgent challenges. According to a study published in The Lancet, “By 2100, more than 97 percent of countries—198 out of 204—will have fertility rates below what is necessary to sustain population size over time.”

Is the low birth rate a real problem?

For Carmen Ledo, a researcher and expert in urban planning, the birth rate in Latin America is an “extremely heterogeneous” reality. According to her, a deeper reading is needed that takes into account rural areas, less urbanized areas, or even peri-urban spaces, where the birth rate is still high. This is unlike the larger cities, where there is greater segregation and problems, which has had a significant impact on the decline.

Ledo explains:

Si bien es un hecho social y está determinado por el comportamiento reproductivo, tiene que ver con los riesgos de que no haya reemplazos. Eso significa que la tasa bruta de reproducción sea menor a uno o que por cada mujer en edad fértil que sale de la vida reproductiva no entre otra mujer. Las posibilidades de extinguirnos o no en el tiempo están relacionadas con la calidad de vida.

Although it is a social fact and is determined by reproductive behavior, it has to do with the risks of the lack of replacements. This means that the gross reproduction rate is less than one, or that for every woman of childbearing age who leaves reproductive life, no other woman enters. Quality of life determines whether or not we are likely to become extinct over time.

Yopo agrees with this point and emphasizes women's barriers to decision-making:

La transición a la maternidad sigue teniendo mucho costo porque evidencia fuertes desigualdades de género y hoy las mujeres están menos dispuestas a formar familia en condiciones que les parecen asimétricas. Hoy se exige mucho más y también surgen preguntas: ¿Seré una buena madre? ¿Estoy en las condiciones de tener hijos?.

The transition to motherhood continues to be very costly because it shows strong gender inequalities, and today women are less willing to start a family in conditions that seem asymmetrical to them. Today, we demand much more of mothers, and other questions also surface: Will I be a good mother? Am I in a position to have children?

Inés, for example, has spent her life questioning many things, and although she has not yet been able to become a mother, she is not giving up that dream.

Mi ilusión es ser mamá, tengo 41 años y aunque lo pienso desde hace mucho, antes priorizaba mis objetivos personales y buscar mi independencia. Siento que la situación cada día es más difícil, en cuanto a lo económico y emocional, y eso realmente me hace pensar si voy a ser capaz de cuidar de otra vida más. Pero quiero experimentar todo ese proceso de tener un bebé.

My dream is to be a mom, I am 41 years old, and although I thought about it for a long time, before I prioritized my personal goals, and seeking my independence. I feel that the situation is more difficult every day economically and emotionally, and that really makes me wonder if I will be able to take care of another life. But I want to experience the whole process of having a baby.

On the other hand, what is also blocking population growth are generational concerns and the particular way in which young people conceive the world, with strong fears of the future, especially about climate change, which leads them, in many cases, to feel more attached to pets and less interested in bringing children into a convulsed environment.

Ledo adds: