Military junta soldiers upon the seizure of power in Guinea in September 2021. Screenshot video “Le Lieutenant-colonel guinéen Mamady Doumbouya, chef du GFS, a prononcé un discours” on the CGTN Français YouTube Channel. Fair use.

In the Republic of Guinea, returning to civilian rule before 2025 seems unlikely after the military authorities announced their intention to extend the political transition period.

In early April 2022, Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya, leader of the military junta ruling Guinea since September 2021, announced a 39-month transition period before considering a return to civilian rule. On May 11, 2022, he revised this decision to a 36-month transition period, thus allowing three years to hand over power. However, under threat from the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), he subsequently decided on a two-year transition period. Under this arrangement, the military regime should hand over power by late December 2024 at the very latest.

Although the Guinean opposition is eagerly awaiting the end of  this transition period, the military authorities aren't in any hurry to honor this deadline. They instead prioritized the establishment of an electoral register over the organization of the 2024 presidential election itself. This move contradicts their commitments to the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) after the coup d’état on September 5, 2021.

On February 21, 2024, a Radio France Internationale (RFI) article based on a publication from the professional political developments website Africa Intelligence stated that Colonel Mamadi Doumbouya had initiated proceedings with Western partners to extend this transition period beyond its official December 2024 deadline. Appointed as the  transition prime minister on February 27, 2024, Amadou Oury Bah openly discussed this matter further:

Il y a beaucoup de contingences. Dans un contexte où nous accusons une fragilité sur le plan économique, sur le plan financier, nous devons travailler à une stabilisation, à une décrispation politique pour avoir la possibilité d'examiner et de faire les étapes du chronogramme dans une relative sérénité. L'objectif, c'est de finir cela et je pense que 2025 est une bonne période pour couronner l'ensemble du processus.

There are many unforeseen circumstances. At a time of economic and financial instability, we must work towards stabilizing and easing political tensions to review and implement the timetable in a more settled manner. The aim is to complete this transition, and I think 2025 is the best time to round off the whole process.

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Outrage in Guinea

Members of the country’s opposition don’t intend just to sit back and watch this latest power grab. In April 2024, a coalition between some opposition and civil society actors, known as The Vital Forces of Guinea (FVG), denounced the junta’s actions:

(…)Après plus de deux ans de transition, la Guinée ne dispose toujours pas de projet de constitution, ni de code électoral, ni d'organe de gestion des élections, ni de fichier (électoral)

(…)After over two years of transition, Guinea still doesn’t have a draft constitution, an electoral code, an election management system, or an electoral register.

In May 2024, the National Front for the Defense of the Constitution (FNDC), a coalition of Guinean citizens behind a series of protests and rallies, expressed their opposition to the junta. Ibrahima Diallo, head of FNDC operations, deplored:

Monsieur Bah Oury s’inscrit très malheureusement dans la continuité des acteurs qui ont grippé cette transition. L’unilatéralisme dans les prises de décision, le mépris et l’arrogance dans le discourt des autorités le rejet et l’exclusion des acteurs socio-politique important pour la vie de la Nation et pour la réussite de cette transition. Je le dis ici et au nom du FNDC que nous nous opposerons fermement à toute idée du glissement ou de prolongation de la transition par tous les moyens légaux (…)

Unfortunately, Mr. Bah Oury is one of the people blocking this transition. Unilateralism in decision-making, contempt, and arrogance in public discourse, as well as the rejection and exclusion of the socio-political actors required for the functioning of this nation and the success of its transition. On behalf of the FNDC, I say that we will firmly oppose any changes or extensions to this transition using all legal means (…)

In early June 2024, media outlet France24 interviewed the country’s former prime minister (2004-2006) and leader of the Union of the Democratic Forces of Guinea, Cellou Dalein Diallo. In his statement, Diallo described the country’s current political situation as a dictatorship, stating that the military wants to stay in power for as long as possible. Here is a video of this interview with France24:

According to the opposition leader, Guineans are incredibly disappointed with the military’s conduct and are thereby determined to take action to ensure the junta honors its commitments.

The government insists nothing can be done before establishing a reliable electoral register. In a Tv5monde article, the regime’s prime minister, Amadou Oury Bah,  said:

Après le référendum, tout le reste pourra se faire de manière concertée, parce que les conditionnalités les plus difficiles seront à partir de ce moment-là derrière nous.

Everything can be coordinated after the referendum. By then, all the difficulties will be behind us.

Media censorship is an example of the government’s abuse of power. Amadou Oury Bah refused to comment on the subsequent closure of some media outlets.

Internal disputes

The military regime is also facing some internal disputes. On June 15, 2024, a military court tried and sentenced Sadiba Koulibaly, former military officer and chief of staff of the Republic of Guinea, to five years imprisonment. After his arrest on June 4, 2024, Koulibaly was charged with abandoning his post as chargé d’affaires at the Guinean Embassy in Cuba and illegally possessing weapons. According to reports, Colonel Sadiba Koulibaly died while in custody. Military prosecutor Colonel Aly Camara gave further details on the circumstances surrounding the former colonel’s death in a press release that the public prosecutor’s office in the military court of first instance in Guinean capital Conakry issued. In an article on the news website Anadolou, he reported:

Il résulte des conclusions du rapport d’autopsie établi à cet effet que le décès pourrait être imputable à un psycho-traumatisme important et un stress prolongé qui sont à l’origine d’une arythmie cardiaque majeure ayant entraîné une défibrillation et un arrêt cardiaque.

The autopsy report concluded that the death could be attributed to significant psycho-trauma and prolonged stress, causing major cardiac arrhythmia that led to defibrillation and cardiac arrest.

Some Guineans paid tribute to the deceased. Bourlaye Condé, a Guinean citizen from Siguiri (a city in the north of the country), told Guinean newspaper Révelateur224:

Nous avons appris avec pincement de cœur la disparition tragique et surprenante du général Sadiba Koulibaly. Comme la mort est inévitable, c’est Dieu seul qui connaît les conditions dans lesquelles il est mort, nous on ne peut rien, dire tôt ou tard on connaîtra la vérité, il était un militaire républicain, que Dieu l’accueil dans son paradis.

It is with great sadness that we learn of the tragic and unexpected death of General Sadiba Koulibaly. As death is inevitable, only God knows the circumstances in which he died. We can do nothing, but we will learn the truth sooner or later. He was a republican soldier. May God welcome him into his paradise.

This death could indicate the mistrust of Mamadi Boumbouya’s regime toward its military. Guinea’s political future is on hold until elections to return it to civilian rule take place.

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