Outside Sydnaya prison, nicknamed the “human slaughterhouse”. Screenshot from a video uploaded to YouTube by Al Jazeera Arabic.

By Walid El Houri

For thirteen years, the Syrian dictatorship clung to power, surviving wars, uprisings and geopolitical upheavals. Yet, in a dramatic and rapid turn of events, the regime that seemed unshakable fell on December 8, 2024. The phrase on many Syrian lips was: 

ما في للأبد، عاشت سوريا وسقط الأسد

There is no forever, Syria lives and Assad falls

Relief, joy, shock, celebration, anticipation, trepidation, and fear all permeate the air as the country stands on the precipice of an uncertain future.

What happened?

The collapse of the Baath dictatorship was as swift as it was unexpected. Years of economic decline, mounting international isolation, and fractured alliances finally converged into a perfect storm.

In power since 1971, the Assad family ruled Syria with an iron fist and brutal violence that has been condemned by human rights organizations for decades. 

The final days of the regime began with an offensive by opposition forces led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which swiftly took major cities in a few days, taking control of Aleppo, Homs and Hama and finally taking Damascus 12 days later, on December 8. The offensive was met with little resistance from regime forces, exposing a weakened body that had only maintained a facade of power. 

The regime’s demise comes at a time of profound change both within Syria and internationally. Domestically, Syrians faced an unprecedented economic crisis that eroded their support base, with inflation soaring and basic commodities becoming inaccessible. The discontent, simmering for years, boiled over as living conditions reached breaking point. 

Globally, changing alliances and priorities created an opening. With shifts in U.S. and European policies toward the region and waning Russian and Iranian influence due to their own challenges, the regime’s external lifelines weakened. The U.S., which has troops in Syria's northeast and has been involved in the country's war for years, also launched a bombing campaign on what it claimed were 75 ISIL targets in the country.

These shifting geopolitical dynamics follow more than a year of direct and indirect confrontations between Israel and Iran, alongside Israel's ongoing genocidal war on Gaza. Long-time allies of the regime, particularly Hezbollah and Iran, were weakened, stripping the regime of its primary protection. On the geopolitical chessboard, where Syria had long been a pawn, the tides turned decisively against it.

What next?

The fall of the dictatorship and the emotional, historic scenes of thousands of prisoners being released from brutal dungeons — some of whom had been missing for decades — brought a wave of relief and hope. However, these feelings are accompanied by profound fear. For many Syrians, the scars of war and repression remain fresh. Trust in political processes is fragile, and the absence of a clear roadmap for transition raises concerns about potential power vacuums or factional infighting.

Adding to these challenges is Israel’s response, which included an unprecedented aerial bombardment campaign that destroyed the majority of Syria’s military capacities, striking the country 480 times within hours. Israel further escalated tensions by encroaching deep into Syrian territory, reaching within 25 kilometres of the capital Damascus. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is facing an arrest warrant by the International Criminal Court, declared that the Syrian Golan Heights would remain part of Israel forever. 

Simultaneously, Turkey’s involvement in the north, with ongoing battles by Turkish-supported forces in Kurdish areas and other conflicts between different factions in the country, further contribute to the uncertainty of Syria’s future.

Still, there is cautious optimism. Syrian civil society, battered but resilient, has called for a democratic transition, inclusive governance and justice for past atrocities. Achieving these aspirations will require carefully navigating Syria’s complex social, ethnic, and political fabric.

Syria’s future will not be shaped in isolation. The country remains at the heart of a volatile region, with its borders touching key players like Turkey, Israel, and Iraq. Global powers, from the United States to China, Russia and Iran have vested interests in the outcome of Syria’s transition.

Rebuilding the state will involve reconciling these external pressures with the needs and desires of Syrians. But, for the first time in over a decade, the dictatorship’s promise of “forever” has crumbled, opening the door to a new chapter — one filled with hope, uncertainty, and the immense potential to redefine what Syria can be.

The transition ahead

As the world watches, Syria stands at a crossroads. The choices made in the coming months will determine whether the country spirals into chaos or emerges as a model for resilience and renewal. Syrians have shown remarkable strength and perseverance through years of unimaginable hardship. It is this resilience that offers the greatest hope for building a new Syria — a state that reflects the aspirations of its people and stands as a beacon of possibility in a region too often defined by conflict.

The phrase “forever is gone, forever” is not just a declaration of the dictatorship’s end; it is a promise to future generations that Syria’s darkest days are behind it. Now, the work begins to ensure that the promise of a brighter future becomes reality.